TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

AXNT20 KNHC 101209
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 10 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 3N50W 13N55W MOVING
WESTWARD 10 KT. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA 11N15W TO 9N19W...6N22W 2N33W TO 4N48W.
ITCZ PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...FROM 1N TO 2N
BETWEEN 25W AND 31W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF
1N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS WITH THE ITCZ ARE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 20W/21W FROM 4N TO 12N...NEARLY STATIONARY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS APPROACHING THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN AND MEXICO. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
COLORADO AND THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE
TOWARD SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MOVING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...FROM
MEXICO NEAR 20N106W THROUGH 24N100W...PARALLELING THE TEXAS
COAST TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. SOME OF THAT HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST
OF 90W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...MOVING OUT OF THE AREA THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT
GOES FROM A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N87W
BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO HONDURAS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT THAT EMANATES FROM THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER
OF TOMAS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 30N51W.
A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 30N51W TO 25N53W TO 21N50W...
CURVING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO RICO...TO A CARIBBEAN SEA 1007 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 17N68W...ABOUT 70 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. THE
24-HOUR FORECAST IS FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR
20N67W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N
BETWEEN 64W AND 66W...AND FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS SECTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W. THIS
CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
THE WATERS THAT ARE JUST TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...TO 31N68W.
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N68W TO 30N70W
AND 30N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT. THE REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TOMAS IS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR
37N58W. A COLD FRONT THAT EMANATES FROM THE LOW CENTER PASSES
THROUGH 32N51W TO 30N51W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
30N51W TO 25N53W TO 21N50W...CURVING ACROSS WESTERN PUERTO
RICO...TO A CARIBBEAN SEA 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 17N68W...ABOUT 70 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF PUERTO RICO. THE 24-HOUR FORECAST IS
FOR THIS LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE NEAR 20N67W. POSSIBLE
LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 19N TO 23N BETWEEN 49W AND 60W.
ONE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N41W WITH LITTLE
TO NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. A SECOND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N45W. A THIRD CYCLONIC CENTER
IS NEAR 20N36W. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 40W AND 45W...AND FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W.
A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS
NEAR 20N20W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 14N TO 25N
BETWEEN 16W AND 30W. A SURFACE 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS
NEAR 21N25W. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 19N TO 25N BETWEEN 22W AND 29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


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