TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

AXNT20 KNHC 121126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST FRI NOV 12 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W TO 5N23W 6N30W 6N34W 4N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W IN THE WATERS JUST OFF
SIERRA LEONE AND LIBERIA. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
13N30W 9N32W 5N32W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N28W 11N31W 6N33W...THE EQUATOR AT 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NEW MEXICO
AND WEST TEXAS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES
IN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW FROM 19N105W 25N96W TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CURVES ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...AND BEYOND 25N70W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND
A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA.
A STATIONARY FRONT GOES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND IT ENDS
AT SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS. A REMNANT CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS
CONTINUES FROM THE END OF THE STATIONARY FRONT TO THE GOLFO
DE VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
20N59W 18N63W 18N65W...BETWEEN ANGUILLA AND SAINT KITTS AND
NEVIS AND NEAR SAINT CROIX. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN
75 NM TO 150 NM OFFSHORE ALONG COLOMBIA FROM THE GULF OF URABA
TO 13N75W. PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE IN BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT EXTEND FROM HAITI OUT 240 NM TO THE
SOUTHWEST...IN CLOUDS THAT STRETCH FROM JAMAICA TO THE
NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER...AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF 19N87W
16N82W ALONG THE COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE...
AND HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
LARGE SCALE DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO
THE WEST OF THE 32N45W-SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS STATIONARY FRONT.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N63W TO 26N60W 23N70W...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL
CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO BELIZE AND
NORTHERN GUATEMALA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N50W
TO 25N55W 20N60W AND TO SAINT KITTS AND NEVIS. STRONG RAINSHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 46W AND 48W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 15 NM TO 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N50W
23N54W 22N57W 20N59W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 21N29W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 16N34W AND 6N40W.
A SECOND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 30N22W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N33W 19N33W. POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
ARE FROM 16N TO 17N BETWEEN 33W AND 34W...AND FROM 20N TO 23N
BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE


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