TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

AXNT20 KNHC 221155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 22 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE GUINEA/SIERRA LEONE BORDER TO 5N26W 4N30W 5N39W 5N46W.
THE ITCZ BECOMES INDISTINCT AFTER 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
44W/45W FROM 7N TO 15N BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 4N BETWEEN 1W
AND 10W...FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 10W AND 12W...FROM 6N TO 7N
BETWEEN 14W AND 15W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 2N
TO 5N BETWEEN 15W AND 20W...FROM 1S TO 7N BETWEEN 20W AND 40W...
FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W...AND FROM THE COAST OF GUYANA
TO 11N BETWEEN 55W AND 61W AT TRINIDAD. IT IS NOT EASY TO
DISTINGUISH BETWEEN PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THE
TROUGH AND WHAT IS RELATED JUST TO THE ITCZ.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA.
SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES
THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE CENTRAL GULF
WATERS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE MEXICO
COAST NEAR 20N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN
87W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE COVERS THE AREA.
SURFACE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IS EVERYWHERE. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS AGAINST THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA...FROM CENTRAL PANAMA
TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM
9N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS
OF 11N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN COASTAL VENEZUELA BETWEEN 66W AND 68W...
AND ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...ARE IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE.
CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST...TO REACH THE NORTHEASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL ISLANDS BETWEEN 60W AND HISPANIOLA...DURING THE DAY
TODAY.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
CLUSTERS OF BROKEN LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 50W.
THE CLOUDS ARE MOVING WESTWARD DUE TO THE LARGE-SCALE SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF
55W. A COLD FRONT IS ALONG 32N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A TROUGH
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH 32N50W TO 20N53W. AN EARLIER TROUGH
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 31N33W.
A REMNANT CLOUD LINE CONTINUES FROM 31N33W TO 27N40W 23N50W
TO 21N60W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ENDS AT 32N27W. A REMNANT CLOUD
LINE CONTINUES FROM 32N27W TO 28N32W AND 22N43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 26N40W 23N48W...FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 25N AND 37W...AND
WITHIN 60 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE 31N33W 21N60W CLOUD LINE
TO THE WEST OF 50W.


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