TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION

AXNT20 KNHC 291126
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST MON NOV 29 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA-BISSAU TO 10N21W 7N30W 3N40W...
CROSSING THE EQUATOR ALONG 47W...INTO NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR
1S49W. SCATTERED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N TO 12N BETWEEN 29W AND 40W...
AND FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...ON TOP OF
BROAD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM
27N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 27N/28W
ALONG 80W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N87W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CLUSTERS OF CLOUDS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
IN THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW...TO THE EAST OF 92W...AND TO
THE NORTH OF 23N.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN VENEZUELA TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE AREA HAS NOT BEEN
ADDED TO THE ANALYSIS FOR THE 29/0600 UTC MAP. THE ITCZ HAS BEEN
INCLUDED ALONG 11N BETWEEN 67W AND 76W...AND THEN FROM 11N76W
TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER NEAR 9N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE SOUTH OF
11N60W 12N65W 14N72W 13N78W 12N84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WITH POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN CLUSTERS...MOVING FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
33N58W TO 27N69W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N60W 27N71W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 27N71W...TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST ALONG 27N/28N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES AROUND A RIDGE
THAT IS ALONG 29N52W...TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 25N60W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. ANOTHER
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO
15N50W. DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF
17N TO THE EAST OF 40W. A 997 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR
26N30W. A DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT CURVES AWAY FROM THE 997 MB
LOW CENTER...THROUGH 30N33W TO A 1001 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 32N24W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
1001 MB LOW CENTER TO 28N22W 22N27W 17N36W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE 1001 MB LOW CENTER. ONE
TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE 997 MB LOW CENTER...
AND A SECOND TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER.
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 40W.


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