Thursday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041755
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU NOV 04 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS AT 04/1800 UTC IS NEAR
16.4N 76.2W...OR ABOUT 270 NM TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI...AND ABOUT 110 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KINGSTON JAMAICA. TOMAS IS MOVING NORTHWARD 07 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM
TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT GOES FROM 10N80W JUST
OFF THE PANAMA COAST...TO 11N77W TO 14N74W TO 19N75W IN THE
WATERS THAT ARE BETWEEN JAMAICA...CUBA...AND HAITI. OTHER
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 78W AND THE COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND
COSTA RICA...AND IN THE WATERS FROM VENEZUELA TO THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BETWEEN 67W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W TO 6N25W 5N35W 9N45W...
AND BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 9N51W. DISORGANIZED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 1N TO 7N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W.
ONE SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 13N24W TO 9N27W TO 5N27W.
DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 24W AND 32W.
A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 10N TO 20N. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 44W
AND 46W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 17N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURINAME COAST NEAR 6N54W TO
9N58W TO 13N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 13N63W 9N57W 5N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W INTO THE WESTERN
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY-TO-NORTHERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS MEXICO. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE
ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM. THE SURFACE FRONTAL CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM
NORTH FLORIDA TO A 1009 MB SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LOW PRESSURE
CENTER...AND A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WEST OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS
FROM 25N NORTHWARD INTO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN 85W
AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA
TO 27N BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA
COAST. THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS OBVIOUSLY IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE AT
THIS MOMENT. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS THAT
ARE BETWEEN 67W AND 83W. A SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURINAME COAST NEAR 6N54W TO 9N58W TO
13N63W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. LOW CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM
15N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 15N59W TO 16N63W IN THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA
ROUGHLY FROM SAINT LUCIA TO BARBUDA. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA THAT IS NOT
BEING TOUCHED BY T.S. TOMAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
WEST OF THE LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO THE HONDURAS COAST
NEAR 15N84W...AND CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO FROM HONDURAS
TO GUATEMALA TO BELIZE AND IN MEXICO FROM THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF 22N79W AT THE CUBA COAST BEYOND 32N74W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MOISTURE IS RELATED TO THE DEEP LAYER
TROUGH AND THE COLD FRONT THAT ARE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO
25N56W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC COLD FRONT
THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N39W TO 29N40W TO 24N44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT. A POST-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N42W 29N50W 29N56W TO 31N60W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
WEST OF THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 25N43W 20N46W 15N49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN
30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N49W 16N47W...AND 20N46W 25N42W.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE
EAST OF 34W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO A 1016 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 25N19W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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