Thursday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

000
AXNT20 KNHC 181740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU NOV 18 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N12W 4N20W 5N30W 7N36W 6N45W 6N54W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-10N BETWEEN
26W-33W...AND FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 36W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S FLORIDA AT 26N80W
TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 21N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER S FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA... AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 80W-86W.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S MISSISSIPPI AT 30N89W TO
TAMPICO MEXICO ALONG 24N96W 21N97W. THIS FRONT IS MOSTLY VOID OF
PRECIPITATION HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S OF THE FRONT OVER
THE SW GULF FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 93W-95W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS
OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. THE BACK SIDE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE IS OVER THE SE GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE GULF. 70-110 KT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE OVER THE
N GULF N OF 27N SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF.
EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE TWO COLD FRONTS TO MOVE TO THE W
ATLANTIC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 1500 UTC...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM W CUBA TO HONDURAS
ALONG 85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 80W-89W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
ALSO INLAND OVER W HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA. ANOTHER SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM GUADELOUPE TO N VENEZUELA
AT 9N65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 65W-69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
11N-15N BETWEEN 60W-64W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA S OF 12N. IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED E OF JAMAICA
NEAR 18N74W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 14N BETWEEN 80W-90W...AND OVER THE S CARIBBEAN S
OF 13N. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN HAS STRONG UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TO DRIFT
W. ALSO EXPECT THE TROUGH OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO MOVE W
WITH CONVECTION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N66W 29N70W 26N80W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1020 MB HIGH
IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 28N66W. A 1009 MB LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
S FROM THE LOW TO 20N50W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE E OF THE TROUGH
FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 43W-49W. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 29N26W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC BETWEEN 40W-60W. SIGNIFICANT UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 38W-49W. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC E OF 40W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS FOR... THE W ATLANTIC COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH
SHOWERS...AND FOR THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE ESE
WITH MOVE CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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