Thursday Afternoon Tropical Weather Outlook

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

ABNT20 KNHC 021755
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUN 2 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AND NEARLY STATIONARY AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER
THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXTENDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH
OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A
LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER
PORTIONS OF HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED TODAY. THERE IS STILL A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BERG


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