Thursday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

AXNT20 KNHC 112359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU NOV 11 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 09N14W 06N20W 08N29W 07N40W 06N56W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED WITHIN THE ITCZ REGION FROM 05N29W
TO 13N27W. BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS IN THE VICINITY OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WITH WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OCCURRING FROM 04N-16N BETWEEN 21W-35W. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR 20N31W AND TROUGH AXIS DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO
05N35W. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N
BETWEEN 07W-12W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
MODEST SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOCATES OVER THE
GULF THIS EVENING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
LOCATED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
BENEATH THIS FLOW ALOFT... SURFACE RIDGING ENVELOPES THE ENTIRE
GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS.
WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS ESTABLISHED ALONG 88W...MOIST E TO SE
LOW-LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 22N92W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR
GALVESTON BAY. OTHER ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS S OF 22N W OF
94W OVER THE SW GULF. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONT
EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 13N56W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WESTWARD ALONG 13N TO NICARAGUA. WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR AND
SUBSIDENCE IS PREVALENT BENEATH THIS UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...A
STREAM OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM THE SW
CARIBBEAN NE TO PUERTO RICO AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
ATLC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
14N BETWEEN 72W-81W AS LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE AND BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICAL
COLOMBIAN LOW PRESSURE AREA. FARTHER EAST...A 1010 MB LOW IS
CENTERED IN THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 21N62W THAT EXTENDS A
SURFACE TROUGH SW THROUGH ANEGADA PASSAGE TO 14N69W. WHILE NO
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH...WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH AND N OF 16N E OF 66W OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. WEST
OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...AREAS OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 82W-90W...INCLUDING THE GULF OF HONDURAS...
AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS...BELIZE...
GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A DEEP LAYERED 994 MB STORM FORCE LOW REMAINS SPINNING OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLC CENTERED NEAR 38N60W. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHING DIPS TO 28N AND REMAINS LARGELY BETWEEN 50W-70W.
ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING...A STATIONARY FRONT
ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N44W AND EXTENDS SW ALONG
28N50W THEN INTO A 1010 MB LOW CENTERED NE OF THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE NEAR 21N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH THEN TRAILS SW INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BEYOND 18N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 300 NM SE OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 44W-54W...WHILE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 210 NM SE OF THE FRONT
BETWEEN 54W-64W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 37N12W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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