Thursday Evening Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2011

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS FROM
14N39W TO 6N40W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE
OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN
ANALYZED FROM 18N72W TO 11N74W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LEVEL MOISTURE EVIDENT ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
JAMAICA TO 13N67W. THIS WAVE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN
TOMORROW...AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN THIS
REGION INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND ENTER THE E TROPICAL ATLC LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS WEST AFRICA...ENTERING THE
EAST TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
11N15W TO 6N18W TO 4N25W...WHERE IT CONTINUES AS THE ITCZ AXIS
TO 5N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 18W-27W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ENTERING THE
COASTAL WATERS OF LIBERIA...SIERRA LEONE...AND GUINEA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF THIS EVENING
...WITH DRY AIR ALOFT COVERING MOSTLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
BASIN EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. UNDERNEATH THIS UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE LIES A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 28N91W TO
21N95W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SHARP CYCLONIC TURN ALONG
THE TROUGH AXIS GUSTING TO 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM EAST OF THE AXIS...
AND UP TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COAST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF
THE AXIS. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN IS DOMINATED
BY DRY AIR ALOFT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING FAIR CONDITIONS
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE THE CONVECTION AREA. S-SW FLOW IS OBSERVED E
OF 90W. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE
SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM JAMAICA TO 13N67W. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W TONIGHT. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
NOTICED OVER THE FAR SW BASIN S OF 14N W OF 74W...DUE TO THE
EXTENSION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA
OVER COSTA RICA TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA. OTHERWISE...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. MARINE OBS INDICATE TRADE WINDS 20-25 KT ACROSS
THE AREA...GUSTING TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE
CONVECTION IN THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE W CARIBBEAN
TOMORROW...AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH TO
PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
NEAR-BY CENTRAL AMERICA COUNTRIES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE A SHARP
UPPER TROUGH/LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N70W. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
AN AREA OF SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 65W-71W.
A 1020 MB HIGH IS N OF THIS AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION NEAR 28N67W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE N CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING
A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS OUR DISCUSSION AREA AS A SURFACE TROUGH
NEAR 31N50W EXTENDING SW TO 28N58W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS
OBSERVED AT THE MOMENT. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER
OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA...ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH W OF
PORTUGAL NEAR 40N18W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA


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