Thursday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N35W TO 2N40W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED BY THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ FROM 2N-11N BETWEEN 34W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N67W TO 12N70W MOVING WNW AT 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND IS BEING PUSHED AHEAD OF TE UPPER TROUGH THAT REMAINS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS TO 61W. WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SW OF PUERTO RICO.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER HONDURAS AND WESTERN NICARAGUA...ANALYZED FROM 17N82W TO 8N84W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER COSTA RICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS INLAND ACROSS WEST AFRICA. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE ALONG 7N12W 6N20W 5N30W TO 7N35W. THEN...IT RESUMES E OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 7N40W TO 4N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION MOVES
OUT THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA E OF 17W FROM 6N-11N. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150/180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS W OF 33W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N36W TO 4S33W GENERATING SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A SHORT ITCZ AXIS IS FOUND IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE FROM 4S29W TO 6S18W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. AT SURFACE...A 1015 MB HIGH REMAINS CENTERED NEAR 27N85W. THIS BENIGN FEATURE IS PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS NOTICED OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN WATERS OF CUBA ON VISIBLE NIGHT CHANNEL S OF 22N E OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PANHANDLE IS GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND HUNDERSTORMS
MOVING OFF-SHORE N OF 28N. OTHERWISE...A VERY RELAX PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ALMOST OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN...GENERATING 5-10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA...GUSTING TO 20 KT ACROSS THE TEXAS COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SURFACE RIDGE DRIFTS TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE WEATHER IN THE SW CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA OVER COSTA RICA INTO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS FEATURES IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 73W. OTHERWISE...UPPER
LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN SEA W OF 70W. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPRESSING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THIS AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THE WAVE COVERS THE SEA E OF 70W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SW OF PUERTO RICO.
OTHERWISE...10 TO 25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE SW AND SE CARIBBEAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EAST CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES OFF THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ANALYZED ALONG 31N78W 29N81W INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF THE BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WEST ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW ALONG 32N63W 2770W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N78W. THIS BOUNDARY IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 50 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 27N. IN THE MEAN TIME...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NW ATLC BASIN. A NARROW UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E OF THE FRONT PROVIDING A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N-30N BETWEEN 52W-59W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO S OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-66W...ASSOCIATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A STRONG 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 35N28W.


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