Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Thursday Morning Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 10N43W 7N44W 4N46W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 44W AND 47W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 49W AND 52W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N58W 16N61W 13N62W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 71W. THIS PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 25N58W TO 21N65W TO 14N67W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FORMING FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...GUATEMALA...BELIZE...AND POSSIBLY EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN ALONG 21N...CURVING TO 23N7W 18N15W 11N17W 9N23W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N23W TO 7N35W 7N43W...REACHING COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA NEAR
5N52W. SOME ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS CLOSE TO THE 10N43W 4N46W TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 24W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE AREA. A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 28N90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 71W AND
83W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF GUATEMALA. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 29N80W IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO KEY WEST FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 87W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA INCLUDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CUBA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...GUATEMALA...
BELIZE...AND POSSIBLY EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE SOUTHERN END OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 25N58W...REACHES 14N67W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 71W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL/
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF GUATEMALA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...MEXICO TO THE EAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC...GUATEMALA... BELIZE...AND POSSIBLY EL SALVADOR AND NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF JAMAICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N67W 10N69W
IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE IN CENTRAL VENEZUELA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 65W AND 66W IN A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALONG 32N. A SURFACE TROUGH CUTS ACROSS FLORIDA FROM 29N80W IN THE COASTAL WATERS TO KEY WEST FLORIDA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA THAT IS FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 87W...BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA INCLUDING THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND CUBA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N49W TO 25N58W 21N65W...AND INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 71W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO TO 29N20W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N27W TO A POSITION THAT IS
ABOUT 170 NM TO THE WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 17N28W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 77W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N498W TO BERMUDA TO 32N78W.


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