Tropical Storm IRENE Nears Puerto Rico

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

*****UPDATE*****
Sunday August 21, 11:15pm

IRENE STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 65.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM WNW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING OVER
PUERTO RICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY AFTER THE CENTER MOVES OVER WATER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. A STATION AT SALT RIVER BAY ON ST. CROIX RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 57 MPH...92 KM/H. ROOSEVELT ROADS NAVAL STATION ON PUERTO RICO
RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST TO 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE MEASURED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...EASTERN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TUESDAY...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUESDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

*****UPDATE*****
Sunday August 21, 9:30pm

CENTER OF IRENE MOVING PAST ST. CROIX...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 64.9W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM NW OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.9 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY ON MONDAY. WEAKENING IS LIKELY LATER ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER. ST. THOMAS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 40 MPH...65 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 69 MPH...111 KM/H. A PUERTO RICO SEISMIC NETWORK STATION AT FAJARDO PUERTO RICO RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 35 MPH...
56 KM/H AND A WIND GUST OF 47 MPH...76 KM/H.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON SURFACE DATA FROM ST. CROIX IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THIS EVENING. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL REACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER
PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

*****UPDATE*****
Sunday August 21, 5:30pm

CENTER OF IRENE NEAR ST. CROIX...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 64.4W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM E OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM ESE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO TO THE BORDER WITH
HAITI.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST. MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* THE ENTIRE COASTLINE OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* HAITI
* ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A FURTHER SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL BE MOVING NEAR OR OVER PUERTO RICO TONIGHT AND NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND IRENE IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE INTENSITY ON MONDAY. WEAKENING IS LIKELY LATER ON MONDAY AS THE CENTER MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO INCLUDING CULEBRA AND VIEQUES THIS EVENING...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY MONDAY. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO INCLUDING VIEQUES AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY. THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR OVER AREAS OF ELEVATED TERRAIN.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...HAITI...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF PUERTO RICO...AS WELL AS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

*****UPDATE*****
Sunday August 21, 9:00am

IRENE now over the Leeward Islands packing winds of 50 mph with lots of rain and wind.

The forecast track of IRENE still takes it over Hispaniola and Cuba before making landfall as a Category One Hurricane on early Friday morning.

The computer models are still a bit divergent on where to take IRENE, so the official track could change, so stay tuned. Here is the official advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

IRENE MOVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 62.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM WNW OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSW OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTEN...ST. MARTIN...AND ST.
BARTHELEMY
* ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER
EASTWARD TO NORTH OF CABO ENGANO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS NEAR PUERTO RICO TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY AND APPROACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES...240 KM FROM THE CENTER...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO...AND IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...AND CULEBRA TONIGHT...AND ARE EXPECTED OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
______________________________________________________

*****UPDATE*****
Saturday August 20 11:00pm

IRENE APPROACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.3N 59.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER TO CABO ENGANO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE HAITI BORDER TO CABO ENGANO

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON MONDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES ...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.9 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATER ON SUNDAY. IRENE COULD APPROACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
______________________________________________________

We now can talk about Tropical Storm IRENE. It skipped Tropical Depressions status and went right to T.S. It is moving toward the Leeward Islands at a pretty good clip but is expected to slow down and strengthen in the coming days. We will talk more about this in "Watching the Tropics". Here is the first advisory from the National Hurricane Center.

TROPICAL STORM FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS ISSUED...

SUMMARY OF 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 58.5W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM E OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN.

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...ANGUILLA...AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* DOMINICA
* BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...MONTSERRAT
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE ON MONDAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM AST...2300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.5 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/H...AND A MOTION TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLOWER RATE OF SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...IRENE WILL PASS THROUGH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUNDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON SUNDAY. IRENE COULD APPROACH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATE MONDAY.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AND IRENE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...195 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO.
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY LATE MONDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 10 INCHES.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.


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