Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ophelia Last Advisory

By: National Hurricane Center / Pinpoint Weather Team
By: National Hurricane Center / Pinpoint Weather Team

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...48.1N 52.0W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM NNE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE AVALON PENINSULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 48.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 52.0 WEST. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 37 MPH...59 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION
IN A DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...AND THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OPHELIA. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.
========================================================
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...46.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM WSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 46.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.2 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 43 MPH...69 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND THIS MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAS DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM...PRIMARILY EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA THIS MORNING.

RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SURF...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND TODAY...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.9N 58.6W
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.6 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 33 MPH...54 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ON
MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND MONDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE A
STRONG TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENT CANADA BUOY 44141 RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 60 MPH...96 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 78 MPH...126 KM/H...AS THE CENTER OF OPHELIA PASSED ABOUT 50 MILES...85 KM...WEST OF THE BUOY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 974 MB...28.76 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEWFOUNDLAND.

SURF...LARGE WAVES AND SWELLS GENERATED BY OPHELIA WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH COAST OF NEWFOUNDLAND OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING SURF CONDITIONS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
========================================================
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.5N 61.2W
ABOUT 760 MI...1220 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.2 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 30 MPH...48 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS FORECAST TONIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR OR OVER THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY.
HOWEVER...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES CLOSE TO THE AVALON PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185
MILES...295 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
==========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 62.2W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM NE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.2 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY.
THE CENTER OF OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY SUNDAY...WITH A
RAPID WEAKENING EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA BY EARLY MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ON BERMUDA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

==========================================================
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 62.6W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
* THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE DISTINCT EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 26 MPH...43 KM/H. ON THIS TRACK THE
CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL PASS EAST OF BERMUDA DURING THE SEVERAL HOURS. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. OPHELIA IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR THE AVALON PENINSULA OF NEWFOUNDLAND ON MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
TONIGHT...BUT GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA THIS EVENING AS SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HEAVY SQUALLS APPROACHING THE ISLAND. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE AVALON PENINSULA EARLY MONDAY.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BERMUDA.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 63.0W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. ON THIS TRACK THE THE CORE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WILL PASS EAST OF BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS FOLLOWED BY GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BERMUDA.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 63.1W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.1 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BRINGING THE CORE OF OPHELIA EAST OF BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM. NOAA BUOY 41049...LOCATED ABOUT 90 MILES TO THE
NORTH OF OPHELIA...RECENTLY REPORTED A 1 MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H...WITH A PEAK GUST TO 54 MPH...86 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 956 MB...28.23 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH-FACING BEACHES OF BERMUDA.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.
=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 63.0W
ABOUT 535 MI...865 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.0 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BRINGING THE CORE OF OPHELIA EAST OF BERMUDA LATE SATURDAY. A TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SHOULD BEGIN THEREAFTER.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WEAKENING.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ON BERMUDA STARTING SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS CREATED BY OPHELIA WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BEACHES OF BERMUDA.

RAINFALL...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 1 INCH CAN BE EXPECTED ON BERMUDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH OPHELIA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
=========================================================
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1500 UTC FRI SEP 30 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO BERMUDA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 62.8W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 62.8W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 62.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 25.2N 63.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...165NE 165SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 28.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 32.1N 62.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 37.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 46.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 90SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 52.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 62.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
-------------------------------------------------
HURRICANE OPHELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
0900 UTC FRI SEP 30 2011

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 62.6W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 62.6W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 62.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 24.2N 63.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...165NE 165SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 27.0N 63.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 30.1N 62.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 34.6N 61.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 44.3N 57.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 90SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 51.5N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 62.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

-------------------------------------------------------------------
BULLETIN
HURRICANE OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST THU SEP 29 2011

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENING...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 62.3W
ABOUT 735 MI...1185 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA ...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.3 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A TURN TO
THE NORTH AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED SHOULD OCCUR ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH...140
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA STARTING
LATE SATURDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BROWN
=================================

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
1100 PM AST WED SEP 28 2011

...OPHELIA A LITTLE STRONGER...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 60.7W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.7 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H...AND A TRACK TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND OPHELIA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS 995 MB...29.38 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
==========================

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST TUE SEP 27 2011

...OPHELIA REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 60.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OPHELIA
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.5 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...OPHELIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
============================

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 60.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.9 WEST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. OPHELIA HAS DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.82 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANECENTER ON OPHELIA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 59.5W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.5 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...OPHELIA COULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL LOW
LATER TODAY IF THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM...MAINLY TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
========================================================
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 58.4W
ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.4 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H.
A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...OPHELIA COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AT ANY TIME IF IT NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

==========================================================
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 57.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.4 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED EXPECTED BY
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
=========================================================
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 55.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.2 WEST. OPHELIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.
=======================================================
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST FRI SEP 23 2011

...OPHELIA STRENGTHENS AS IT WOBBLES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 53.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...870 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...
415 KM...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

====================================

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST THU SEP 22 2011

...OPHELIA REMAINS DISORGANIZED...LIKELY TO WEAKEN SOON...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 48.9W
ABOUT 890 MI...1430 KM ESE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 48.9 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H...AND A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...100 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. OPHELIA IS DISORGANIZED...AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE SOME WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB...29.35 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

==============

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162011
500 PM AST WED SEP 21 2011

...OPHELIA CHANGES LITTLE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 44.7W
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.7 WEST. OPHELIA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230 MILES...370 KM
FROM THE CENTER. NOAA BUOY 41041...LOCATED TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF
THE CENTER...RECENTLY REPORTED 1-MINUTE MEAN WINDS OF 38 MPH...
61 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 45 MPH...72 KM/H.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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