Tropics I WCTV Eyewitness News: Tallahassee, Thomasville, Valdosta

Wednesday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

AXNT20 KNHC 031805 CCA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...COR
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED NOV 03 2010

CORRECTION FOR THE TIME OF THE CURRENT POSITION
OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS FROM 03/12Z TO 03/18Z

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND
RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS AT 03/1800 UTC IS NEAR
14.8N 75.0W...OR ABOUT 260 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
PORT-AU-PRINCE HAITI. TOMAS IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 06 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ
THE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL
WATERS OF COLOMBIA FROM 11N TO 17N...ABOUT 100 NM TO THE SOUTH
OF HAITI...BETWEEN 71W AND 77W. OTHER STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
15N77W 15N81W 12N82W...AND THEN FROM THE COASTS OF PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA TO 12N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE TO
THE NORTH OF VENEZUELA FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. THE
CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS TOMAS POSSIBLY REACHING TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH POSSIBLY AT 24 HOURS...AND POSSIBLY REACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 72 HOURS AND AT 96 HOURS. THE TRACK OF
TOMAS IS NORTHEASTWARD FROM 48 HOURS TO 96 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUINEA TO 10N18W...6N23W 5N33W...
5N36W TO 5N43W...AND THEN BECOMING INDISTINCT. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 10W AND 15W. FOUR SURFACE
TROUGHS ARE MIXED WITH THE ITCZ. IT IS NOT EASY TO DISTINGUISH
WHICH PRECIPITATION IS WITH THE ITCZ AND WHICH IS WITH THE
SURFACE TROUGHS. ONE TROUGH CURVES FROM 10N19W TO 6N22W TO
2N22W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N
BETWEEN 21W AND 25W. OTHER DISORGANIZED RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
4N TO 7N BETWEEN 18W AND 23W...AND FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 26W
AND 29W. A SECOND TROUGH IS ALONG 34W/35W FROM 5N TO 11N.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W
AND 40W. THE THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W/46W FROM 7N
TO 18N. ANY PRECIPITATION IS MIXED WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT COVER THE AREA FROM 9N TO 15N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W. THE FOURTH SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N57W 11N58W
8N59W. STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM
SOUTH CENTRAL GUYANA...INTO WESTERN SURINAME...FROM THE SURINAME
COAST TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 58W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM
RADIUS OF 11N59W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR THE AREA OF
GALVESTON BAY/TRINITY BAY OF EAST TEXAS. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS TEXAS/LOUISIANA/MEXICO...AND
THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE SURFACE
FRONTAL CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NORTH FLORIDA TO
A 1009 MB SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND
A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE
COAST OF MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WEST OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE GULF WATERS FROM 25N
NORTHWARD INTO THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO 27N
BETWEEN 89W AND 91W...ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST.
THIS PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LAST FEW DAYS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMAS OBVIOUSLY IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
AT THIS MOMENT. SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO REPORTED 1.37 INCHES OF
RAIN DURING THE 24-HOUR TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200 UTC.
STRONG RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE WATERS FROM 11N
TO 17N BETWEEN 71W AND 77W...PRACTICALLY THE WHOLE AREA FROM
COASTAL COLOMBIA TO COASTAL HAITI AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PART OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MORE RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST AREA OF PRECIPITATION...FROM 15N TO 16N
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N BETWEEN 80W AND
83W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N57W 11N58W 8N59W. STRONG
RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
GUYANA...INTO WESTERN SURINAME...FROM THE SURINAME COAST TO 10N
BETWEEN 55W AND 58W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 45 NM RADIUS OF
11N59W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS TROUGH AND ANY AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION MAY STAY INTACT AND MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG THE LINE FROM 80W IN CUBA BEYOND
31N79W. THIS RIDGE IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE EAST OF THE EAST TEXAS
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ITS ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC FLOW
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 60W.
THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NOW PASSES THROUGH 32N55W
TO 27N59W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD
FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 30N49W...AND DISSIPATING
FROM 30N49W TO 25N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM
22N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W. SOME OF THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION
THAT IS NEAR THE COLD FRONT ALSO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A REMNANT
CLOUD LINE/SHEAR AXIS...THAT IS ALONG 27N49W 23N60W 19N69W AT
THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ON THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SIDE
OF THE COUNTRY. RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N BEYOND
32N BETWEEN 40W AND 46W...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT IS IN THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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