Wednesday Afternoon Tropical Weather Discussion

By: National Hurricane Center
By: National Hurricane Center

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1730 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA IN WEST AFRICA... ENTERING THE EAST ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N22W TO 6N33W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG TO 1N45W. A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 1N-11N E OF 20W. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AT SURFACE...A VERY BROAD PRESSURE GRADIENT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE AREA WITH ESE 5-15 KT WINDS TURNING S ALONG A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE N CENTRAL BASIN...ANALYZED FROM SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W ACROSS FAR SE LOUISIANA AND INTO THE GULF TO NEAR 27N91W. VERY LIMITED-ISOLATED WEAK TO
MODERATE CONVECTION DOTS THE BASIN ON SATELLITE VISIBLE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA N OF 17N BETWEEN 71W-83W. THIS CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ON THE ELONGATED 1008 MB LOW NEAR 19N82W ...NO LONGER A SPECIAL FEATURE...AND A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN CUBA FROM 22N74W TO THE LOW CENTER. A MONSOON TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES SW FROM THE LOW CENTER ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH EASTERN HONDURAS AND INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW SURROUNDS THIS SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINS STILL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN SECTIONS OF
HAITI...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND CUBA AS THE SYSTEM DRIFTS
GENERALLY NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A BROAD/DEEP LAYERED TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDS ITS AXIS SW INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL AND FAR NE CARIBBEAN. THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E OF 66W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NE WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS IT SLOWLY MOVES NE OUT OF THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD/DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS OVER THE NW ATLC EXTENDING ITS AXIS SW ACROSS THE N CENTRAL AND SW ATLC SUPPORTING A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FIRST ONE EXTENDING FROM 30N53W TO 26N56W...THE SECOND ONE FROM 25N60W TO HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W...AND A THIRD ONE EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. THE COMBINATION OF THESE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE GENERATING A BROAD/ELONGATED AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING ALONG 32N48W 25N55W 21N66W
21N73W. THE SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION COVERS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS ANTHE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA ...EASTERN CUBA...AND PUERTO RICO S OF 23N E OF 57W. ACCORDING
TO MODEL GUIDANCE...THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN COULD INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS IN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. TO THE WEST OF THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER...SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLC AROUND A 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N75W. OTHERWISE...SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC E ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N27. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA E OF 45W.


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