URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 26
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
700 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 

       SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
       NORTHEAST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING FROM 700 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.

HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF
DE QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DALLAS TEXAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 25...

DISCUSSION...BROKEN BAND OF TSTMS FROM DUA TO MWL HAS RECENTLY
INTENSIFIED LIKELY DUE TO INCREASED LOW-LEVEL UPLIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ARRIVAL OF COLD FRONT FROM THE NW/W.  00Z FWD SOUNDING IS
REPRESENTATIVE OF THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING A RATHER DEEP
LOW-LEVEL MOIST LAYER AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J/KG.  KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR
UPDRAFT ROTATION GIVEN 40-50 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND A BRIEF
TORNADO REMAINS POSSIBLE AS CONVECTIVE LINE INTERACTS WITH WARM
FRONT PRESENT ACROSS SERN OK.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE PREDOMINANT
LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND TENDENCY FOR THE LLJ TO WEAKEN THROUGH
04/06Z ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...EXPECT SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25025.


...MEAD

STATUS REPORT ON WW 26

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..COHEN..02/04/12

ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 26 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC023-089-127-040240-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CHOCTAW              MCCURTAIN           PUSHMATAHA          


TXC063-085-097-113-119-121-147-159-181-223-231-257-277-343-367-
379-387-397-439-449-459-467-497-499-040240-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CAMP                 COLLIN              COOKE               
DALLAS               DELTA               DENTON              
FANNIN               FRANKLIN            GRAYSON             
HOPKINS              HUNT                KAUFMAN             
LAMAR                MORRIS              PARKER              
RAINS                RED RIVER           ROCKWALL            
TARRANT              TITUS               UPSHUR              
VAN ZANDT            WISE                WOOD                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL

STATUS REPORT ON WW 25

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW SEP
TO 40 NNE MWL TO 40 NNE ADM.

..COHEN..02/04/12

ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 25 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC005-013-069-095-040140-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA                BRYAN               JOHNSTON            
MARSHALL             


TXC097-121-181-237-337-363-367-497-040140-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COOKE                DENTON              GRAYSON             
JACK                 MONTAGUE            PALO PINTO          
PARKER               WISE                


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0107
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0714 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL TX AND W-CNTRL LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 040114Z - 040245Z

A MARGINAL/ISOLATED SVR TSTM THREAT MAY PERSIST UNTIL 03Z ACROSS
PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL TX AND W-CNTRL LA...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND IN CONVECTION ANTICIPATED DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 00Z REFLECTS THE LACK OF ANY SALIENT CONVERGENCE
ZONES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS E-CNTRL TX AND W-CNTRL LA. VERY
WEAK LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS RESULTED IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA AMIDST A
MOSTLY UNINHIBITED WARM SECTOR /REF 00Z LAKE CHARLES RAOB/. PER AREA
RAOB DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS...MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-2000 J/KG ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY SFC TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S IN THE PRESENCE OF A
RICH AND FAIRLY DEEP MOIST LAYER...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE
MIDDLE 60S. AS SUCH...PRIOR TO THE STRENGTHENING OF A NOCTURNAL
STABLE LAYER...A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...WITH
OCCASIONAL UPDRAFT INTENSITY/ROTATION SUPPORTED BY A VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW LEVELS /ALBEIT WITH ONLY MODEST FLOW
MAGNITUDE/. GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER...WITH THIS AREA BEING
DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BELT OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL
WLYS...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR MAGNITUDES AOB 30 KT/. THIS NOTION...COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF
DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT...SHOULD GREATLY HAMPER THE THREAT FOR
MORE PERSISTENT AND/OR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...WITH A WEAKENING TREND
COMMENSURATE WITH THE GROWTH OF NOCTURNAL STABILITY.

..COHEN.. 02/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...

LAT...LON   30609318 29889584 29849735 30579791 31609727 32129544
            32099339 30609318 

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0105
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN NEB...N-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW 

VALID 040036Z - 040430Z

SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 INCH PER HOUR /LOCALLY HIGHER/ ARE ANTICIPATED
ACROSS A LARGE PART OF CNTRL/ERN NEB AND N-CNTRL KS DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

ONGOING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
MID-EVENING ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NORTH PLATTE TO NORFOLK.
THIS SNOW WILL BE MAINTAINED WITH THE PLUME OF MOIST ASCENT OWING TO
WAA EMBEDDED WITHIN A BRANCH OF THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WRAPPING
AROUND A MID-LEVEL VORT MAX POSITIONED OVER NWRN KS. SNOWFALL RATES
MAY LOCALLY REACH 1 IN/HR IN A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY FROM LOGAN
COUNTY ENEWD INTO LOUP COUNTY...WHERE REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A BAND OF PERSISTENTLY ENHANCED REFLECTIVITY. ALSO...NNELY WINDS OF
15-25 MPH MAY RESULT IN BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

AFTER 03Z...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SNOW...WITH RATES LIKELY REACHING
/AND LOCALLY EXCEEDING/ 1 IN/HR...WILL REFOCUS TO THE SOUTH...WHILE
DEVELOPING NWD FROM N-CNTRL KS INTO CNTRL AND ERN NEB. THESE RATES
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ASCENT FOR THIS LATTER
ACTIVITY WILL EMANATE FROM A ZONE OF INCREASING DCVA LEADING THE
AFOREMENTIONED VORT MAX...ENHANCED BY THE ASCENDING BRANCH OF THE
AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION WITHIN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
JET STREAK CROSSING THE AREA.

WHILE INITIALLY SOMEWHAT WARM...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE FOR A PHASE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW DURING
THE EVENING HOURS IN RESPONSE TO /1/ STRONG ADIABATIC COOLING OWING
TO THE FORCED ASCENT.../2/ NOCTURNAL DIABATIC COOLING...AND /3/
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF A NEWD-MIGRATING SFC LOW
ACROSS OK/KS. ACROSS S-CNTRL NEB INTO N-CNTRL KS...RUC/NAM FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SHALLOW LAYER OF VERY
MARGINAL BUOYANCY ROOTED BETWEEN 550 AND 600 MB /MUCAPE VALUES
GENERALLY AOB 100 J PER KG/ ATOP A NEARLY ISOTHERMAL LAYER JUST
BELOW FREEZING WITHIN THE LOW/MID LEVELS. IN ADDITION TO FAVORING
SNOW AGGREGATION PROCESSES...THIS PROFILE MAY SUPPORT A LIGHTNING
STRIKE OR TWO ALONG WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES AROUND 1.5
IN/HR.

..COHEN.. 02/04/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   41459607 40809619 40109680 39399815 39189973 39620081
            40720147 41760116 42659895 42369662 41459607 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CST FRI FEB 03 2012

VALID 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND PARTS OF THE
ARKLATEX...

...SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS...
AS WAS SUGGESTED BY THE FORECAST WEAK NATURE OF THE SURFACE WAVE
MIGRATING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY...
CONDITIONS JUST HAVE NOT BECOME PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS.  THERE IS LITTLE OBVIOUS TO SUGGEST
THAT THIS WILL CHANGE APPRECIABLY TONIGHT.  IF THE SURFACE LOW
CENTER NOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WAS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AS IT
DEVELOPS EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU...MORE CONCERN
WOULD EXIST FOR POSSIBLE INTENSIFICATION AND ORGANIZATION OF ONGOING
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA.  AS IT
IS...SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW REMAINS ON THE ORDER OF 30-40+ KT ACROSS
THIS REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO SIZABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...WHICH
MAY JUSTIFY MAINTAINING SLIGHT RISK SEVERE WIND AND HAIL
PROBABILITIES FOR THIS EVENING.  TOWARD OR SHORTLY AFTER THE 05-06Z
TIME FRAME...THE 850 MB JETLET IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AND
LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC CYCLONE CENTER NOW
SHIFTING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT SOME INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD STILL OCCUR LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST TEXAS  INTO
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS.  THIS MAY BE A RESPONSE
TO FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AHEAD OF A COLD SURFACE RIDGE NOW NOSING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  EVEN IF THIS OCCURS ...WITH DEEP
LAYER FLOW FIELDS AND SHEAR REMAINING RATHER MODEST...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER INSTABILITY WANING...SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED.

..KERR.. 02/04/2012