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Tropical Storm Isaías moves northerly along Florida’s east coast

Published: Jul. 28, 2020 at 1:02 PM EDT|Updated: Aug. 3, 2020 at 8:12 AM EDT
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — At 11 p.m. Tropical Storm Isais was 50 miles E of Cape Canaveral, Florida with sustained winds of 70 mph. The system is moving to the NNW at 9 mph.

The heaviest rain and highest wind gusts associated with Isaias is in the northeastern quarter of the storm. This has kept the worst of the system out in the Atlantic rather than over the Florida peninsula. Even though Isaias is still a tropical storm, it is just below the criteria for a hurricane. To be considered a hurricane, Isaias needs sustained wind speeds of at least 74 mph.

Isaias could become a weak category one hurricane as it moves over the gulf stream’s warmer waters. But, even if Isaias does strengthen into a hurricane it will only be a weak hurricane.

Tropical-storm-force winds are not expected in the Big Bend and South Georgia. The only impacts possible in the WCTV viewing area are a few scattered showers.

The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to watch Isaias in the coming days.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — At 8:00 p.m. Tropical Storm Isaias was 55 miles ESE of Cape Canaveral Florida with sustained winds of 70 mph. The storm was moving to the NNW at 9 mph.

Isaias is continuing to move up Florida’s eastern coast. Rain bands developed across Florida’s peninsula on Sunday, but the heaviest rain stayed in the Atlantic.

Isaias will move towards the northern coast of Florida Sunday night. Monday afternoon Isaias is forecasted to be east of Georgia’s coast and then make landfall in the Carolinas Monday night. After moving through the Carolinas, Isaias will travel up the coast towards New England. Tropical Storm watches are in effect from Hatteras, North Carolina to New York, New York.

The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Isaias in the coming days.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — At 5:00 p.m. Tropical Storm Isaias was 65 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral Florida with sustained wind speeds of 70 mph. Isaias was moving to the NNW at 9 mph.

Isaias’ track hasn’t changed much in the 5:00 PM advisory. Isaias is expected to move up Florida’s eastern coast tonight and then continue to move to the north towards the Carolina’s. Isaias is expected to make landfall in the Carolinas Monday night and then continue northward into New England on Wednesday.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the coasts of North and South Carolina, Georgia, and eastern Florida. Two to four-foot storm surge is possible in the Carolinas.

An area of wind shear sitting over the Florida peninsula is keeping Isaias from restrengthening. Wind shear, which is when winds are going at different speeds and directions in different places in the atmosphere, is known to tear tropical systems apart. Isaias will most likely not restrengthen into a hurricane before making landfall in the Carolinas.

The only impact the Big Bend and South Georgia may see from Isaias is isolated to scattered showers in the east Monday afternoon and evening.

The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor Tropical Storm Isaias.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — Tropical Storm Isaías continued to struggle early Sunday morning, but convection continued to stick around around noon.

The center of the storm was located 55 miles southeast of Fort Pierce and was moving north-northwest (340-degree bearing) at 8 mph according to the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The minimum central pressure fell slightly to 995 millibars with maximum sustained winds of 65 mph.

The storm brought gusty winds and strong rain bands to Florida’s east coast. A few WeatherSTEM stations in St. Lucie and Martin counties reported wind gusts between 39 and 5 mph according to the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Melbourne, Fla.

Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Jupiter Inlet northward to Surf City, N.C. All storm surge advisories in Florida have been cancelled.

The storm was still dealing with west to southwesterly wind shear, keeping the deep convection on its eastern side, and decoupling the center into two separate lower- and mid-level centers. Unless the wind shear weakens, intensification isn’t expected. Despite its disorganization, the radar shows rain bands making their way across the Florida peninsula as of 12:30 p.m. Sunday. The closest band to the Big Bend was from Starke to south of Williston. The southeastern Big Bend counties can see some rain bands Sunday afternoon and evening, but strong wind gusts are not likely.

Isaías will continue to move slowly northward Sunday and Monday before getting picked up by a trough of low pressure aloft and accelerate northeastward likely making landfall in the Carolinas. It’s then forecast to move through New England Tuesday and Wednesday.

The Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the progress of the storm.

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — At 11 p.m., Tropical Storm Isaías was 80 miles ESE of Fort Lauderdale with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. The storm was moving to the NW at 9 mph.

Saturday night, Hurricane Hunters determined Isaias had not strengthened back into a hurricane Saturday evening. Sustained winds of 74 mph are needed for a tropical cyclone to be considered a category one hurricane. However, more thunderstorms associated with Isaias have developed in the last several hours.

Isaias is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday morning as is moves over the gulf stream’s warmer waters. However, Isaias will be a weaker category one hurricane with sustained winds of 75 mph.

Isaias will move up Florida’s eastern coast Sunday and Monday. A few scattered showers may develop in the eastern Big Bend as a result of Isaias, but little to no other effects are expected from the system in the Big Bend and South Georgia.

The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor Isaias in the coming days.

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — At 8:00 PM Tropical Storm Isaias was 100 miles southeast of Fort Lauderdale Florida with sustained wind gusts of 70 mph. The storm was moving to the northwest at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure rose to 993 millibars.

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft confirmed that Isaias weakened into a Tropical Storm at 5:00 PM on Saturday. Two main elements that helped weaken Isaias were dry air and wind shear. An area of dry air currently sitting over southern Florida inhibited storms in Isaias from developing further, which weakened the storm Saturday afternoon. Wind shear is when winds go in different directions in the atmosphere, which typically, tears tropical systems apart. There is currently an area of high wind shear sitting over the Florida Peninsula which is helping to weaken Isaias.

Tonight Isaias is forecasted to strengthen back into a Category 1 hurricane as it moves over the gulf stream’s warmer waters. However, Isaias will be a weak category one hurricane with sustained winds speeds of around 75 mph.

The only impact Isaias may have in the Big Bend and South Georgia are isolated to scattered showers in the east. The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the storm.

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — Isaías is holding on to hurricane strength as it continued to get hit with dry air and wind shear Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds dropped slightly to 80 mph according to the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The minimum central pressure was at 987 millibars as the storm moves northwest at 12 mph.

The storm made landfall over Andros Island Saturday morning, and it’s movement over land was one element that has weakened the storm. Hurricane Hunters have found higher central pressure with the storm. The Hurricane Hunters and radar also found an opening on the southwestern side of Isaías’ eye, but the size of the eye remained steady according to the NHC’s 11 a.m. discussion. Satellite imagery before noon Saturday showed an exposed center with the deep convection to the east of the center (see image below). Wind shear and drier air intruding the storm will continue to limit the storm’s potential over the next 24 hours despite it moving over very warm water.

The official forecast hasn’t changed much with respect to location, but Isaías is expected to move a lot slower than anticipated. It’s projected to be near of off shore of East Central Florida Sunday morning and be off shore of Jacksonville Monday morning. It’s then expected to accelerate northeastward as it gets picked up by an upper-level trough of low pressure in the eastern U.S. While near Florida’s coast, there will be a threat of storm surge with maximum heights of 1 to 4 feet, heavy rain, and wind speeds up to hurricane force. The closer the center of circulation gets to the coast, the higher the impacts.

Impacts in the Big Bend and South Georgia continue to be very minimal as the highest winds will be closer to Florida’s east coast. There is a chance that a few rain bands from Isaías will get into the eastern part of the viewing area, and bring brief gusts and heavy rain. The chance of tropical-storm-force winds will be near 1% in Valdosta, Ga. according information from the National Hurricane Center.

The Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the progress of the storm.

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — Isaías continues to move northwestward Friday evening while the cone of uncertainty has been nudged back to the west.

The Category 1 hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph according to the 5 p.m. Friday advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The estimated minimum central pressure was 991 millibars as the hurricane moved northwest at a slightly-slower 15 mph. Isaías was located 195 miles south-southeast of Nassau, Bahamas.

The hurricane showed signs of intensification earlier Friday afternoon with deep convection near the center of the storm. Radar imagery from the Bahamas also showed a 10-nautical-mile-wide eye, according to the NHC’s 5 p.m. discussion. But recent satellite imagery hinted at drier air trying to enter the storm on its southern side, which could disrupt its strength.

The official forecast track continues its northwesterly path and nearing the Southeast Florida coast Saturday afternoon and evening. It’s then expected to move northward Sunday, getting very close or inland over East Central Florida. The storm will likely get picked up by a trough of low pressure in the eastern U.S. late Sunday and into Monday, possibly posing a threat to the Carolinas Monday and Tuesday. The cone of uncertainty has shifted west as most guidance models have nudged slightly west compared to recent runs. The ridge of high pressure, the steering mechanism of the hurricane, may not weaken as fast and keep Isaías more west in track. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next 24 hours.

As Isaías approaches Florida, there have been changes to tropical watches and warnings. A hurricane warning is in effect for Boca Raton northward to the Volusia/Brevard County Line. A warning means hurricane conditions are expected within 36 hours, and those in the warning need to wrap up hurricane preparations. Hurricane watches are in effect for Hallendale Beach to south of Boca Raton Florida and Volusia-Brevard County Line to the Flagler/Volusia County Line.

A storm surge watch has also been issued for Jupiter Inlet north to Ponte Vedre Beach, meaning these locations could see storm surge within 48 hours. Storm surge could be as high as 1 to 4 feet in parts of Florida’s east coast.

The Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor Hurricane Isaías.

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — Hurricane Isaías’ max sustained winds decreased slightly late Friday morning as the storm moved through the Southeast Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds were at 75 mph according to the 11 a.m. advisory Friday with a minimum central pressure of 992 mb. Isaías was moving northwest at a slower 16 mph with the center 365 miles south-southeast of Great Abaco Island.

There was convection firing up west of the center late Friday morning as the storm battled drier air and wind shear during the morning. This shear will likely stick around in the near term, placing a cap on intensification.

Isaías will maintain a northwesterly movement along the southwestern side of a ridge of high pressure, but lift more north-northwestward Saturday and Sunday as the ridge backs to the east and a trough of low pressure aloft moves in to the eastern U.S. The storm will get close to Florida’s east coast with the cone of uncertainty over the coastal counties. Hurricane watches were in effect for North of Deerfield Beach to the Volusia-Brevard County Line. Tropical storm warnings were issued for North of Ocean Reef northward to Sebastian Inlet.

The odds of tropical-storm-force winds in the Big Bend and South Georgia, as of this update, appear very low. Any fluctuations in the track will have impacts on the forecast for any given point.

The Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the storm throughout the weekend.

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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — Isaías became a hurricane around just before midnight Thursday, according to a special statement from the National Hurricane Center.

Data from Hurricane Hunters and polar-orbiting satellites found winds of hurricane force as it showed signs of strengthening after moving through the Dominican Republic Thursday.

Hurricane warnings have been issued for the Bahamas while tropical storm watches were issued for parts of Florida’s southeastern coast. The cone of uncertainty has shifted slightly east compared to earlier advisories. Wind shear may be a limiting factor by containing the intensity of Isaías, and the official forecast keeps the hurricane at Category 1 status.

The Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the progress of the storm.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Tropical Storm Isaías was near the northern coast of the Dominican Republic Thursday evening as it brought heavy rain and wind to the eastern Greater Antilles, and might pose a thereat the Southeast U.S. coast.

The storm was located 155 miles west-southwest of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic according to the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Maximum sustained winds were at 60 mph with a minimum central pressure of 999 millibars, a lower central pressure than earlier Thursday.

Isaías was moving northwest at 20 mph according to the 5 p.m. advisory, but high-resolution satellite imagery hinted it was riding west-northwestward along the Dominican Republic coastline. A northwesterly path is in the official forecast with Isaías going through the Bahamas Friday into Saturday. Tropical storm warnings were issued for the entire Bahamas, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected over the next 36 hours.

The tropical storm is then expected to move over or close to Florida’s east coast Saturday and Sunday. Tropical storm watches were issued for Florida’s east coast from Ocean Reef to Sebastian Inlet. A tropical storm watch means conditions are possible during the next 48 hours.

The impacts to Florida will depend on how far east or west the storm tracks. The deciding factors will be a trough of low pressure aloft over the Midwest and a ridge of high pressure in the Atlantic. Isaías will move in between these two large features and travel more northerly starting Saturday. The strength of the ridge will be keep to how east or west the storm travels. Also, if the storm’s center reforms because of the land interaction, that might play some role in altering the forecast. That will have to be monitored Thursday night.

The odds of impacts in the Big Bend and South Georgia appear to be minimal as of this writing, but trends will continue to be monitored. Any changes in the storm’s path will change impacts in any given location.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - Isaías remained a tropical storm as it moved northwestward toward the island of Hispaniola Thursday morning.

The tropical storm had maximum sustained winds of 60 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003 millibars according to the 11 a.m. advisory. It was moving northwest at 20 mph with the center of circulation about 50 miles southwest of Punta Cana, Dominican Republic. Heavy rain and gusty winds will be the primary concern for Puerto Rico, Haiti, and the Dominican Republic Thursday into early Friday morning.

The official forecast track and intensity has not changed much since the 5 a.m. advisory with the cone of uncertainty covering much of the Florida peninsula. The official track then has Isaías traveling north, then northeastward Sunday through Tuesday to possibly impact the Carolina coast. But the official forecast track and intensity are still uncertain as Hispaniola’s mountainous terrain could disrupt the storm’s center of circulation and, therefore, intensity. The next 24 hours will be crucial for determining Isaías’ future.

Hurricane Hunters were investigating the storm Thursday morning, finding the strongest winds north of the center where the best convection was present. There was very little wind shear in the environment Thursday morning, but that could increase over the weekend, aiding in the possibility of a tamer storm with respect to wind speed.

The Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the progress of Isaías.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The ninth named storm of the 2020 hurricane season developed Wednesday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. Polar-orbiting satellites indicated a closed center of circulation late Wednesday night, prompting the naming of Tropical Storm Isaías.

The tropical storm appeared better organized Thursday morning, with respect to convection being near the center of circulation as it approached the island of Hispaniola, posing a wind and flooding threat for Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Maximum sustained winds were at 60 mph, according to the 8 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Isaías was moving northwest at a slightly slower 20 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1003 millibars.

Hurricane Hunters were investigating the storm Thursday morning, and found the center roughly around 17.2°N 68.5°W.

The tropical storm is expected to continue to move northwesterly according to the official forecast, going over the Dominican Republic later on Thursday. The mountainous terrain can disrupt the storm’s center of circulation, causing it to weaken (at least) temporarily. This cross over the high terrain will, again, throw questions into the intensity forecast down the road. Also, if the center of the storm redevelops at a different location, this could also impact the forecast track.

The official forecast has the cone shifted east away from the Big Bend and South Georgia, with the cone over most of the Florida peninsula as computer model guidance moved eastward. But, again, some uncertainty remains with strength and path, and it will continue to be watched over the next few days.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- As of 10:50 p.m., the National Hurricane Center has named the tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea Tropical Storm Isaias.

A tropical disturbance entering the Caribbean Sea has a high likelihood of development, but questions remain about its future path and strength.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine was located roughly 320 miles east-southeast of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic and moving west-northwest at a brisk 23 mph, according to the 5 p.m. advisory Wednesday.

The disturbance appeared more organized Wednesday morning with convection appearing to be more centered, but the convection became more elongated during the afternoon. Hurricane Hunter reconnaissance aircraft did not find a center of circulation Wednesday morning, leaving the system at its potential status. Another flight is expected to inspect the disturbance Wednesday evening.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has the system becoming Tropical Storm Isaías Wednesday night, moving near or over Hispaniola Thursday. The forecast has the storm weakening as it moves through the island, likely because the high terrain of the island can disrupt the tropical cyclone. It then has the storm over or near Cuba or the southern Bahamas Friday, maintaining tropical storm status. The cone of uncertainty does include the Florida peninsula and most of the panhandle, and it has shifted west since Tuesday’s initial advisories.

Because of the disturbance being disorganized with no fixed center, forecasting its future track remains highly uncertain. Future intensity is also uncertain because of the land and high terrain it may encounter along the way, but wind shear in the region will play a role in limiting the storm’s strength. A fixed center along with more weather data from in and around the system will help forecasters and computer guidance models determine the future track of soon-to-be Isaías.

Those in the Big Bend and South Georgia should continue to monitor the progress of the disturbance over the next several days.

This story was updated to include information from the National Hurricane Center’s 5 p.m. advisory Wednesday as well as additional analysis.

MIAMI (CBSMiami) — A tropical disturbance in the Atlantic is bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Leeward Islands but still hasn’t turned into Tropical Storm Isaias.

At 8 a.m. Wednesday, the disturbance was located 55 miles west-southwest of Dominica with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph with higher gusts.

The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph, and this general motion with some slight reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days.

On the forecast track, the system will move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over the southeastern Bahamas on Friday.

Some increase in strength is forecast on Wednesday, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction, and some restrengthening possible late week.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

  • Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
  • U.S. Virgin Islands
  • British Virgin Islands
  • Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla
  • Guadeloupe, Martinique, St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy
  • Saba and St. Eustatius
  • Maarten
  • Dominican Republic from Punta Caucedo eastward to Cabo Engano and then westward along the northern coast to the Dominican Republic/Haiti border
  • North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for:

  • Dominican Republic from the southern Haiti border eastward to Punta Caucedo
  • Turks and Caicos Islands
  • Southeastern Bahamas

Tropical storm conditions will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday.

According to CBS4 Chief Meteorologist Craig Setzer, it is still too early to tell exact impacts in Florida, but check hurricane supplies, shutters, and evacuation plans in case they are needed.

Read previous stories tracking this tropical disturbance below.

MIAMI (CBSMiami) – Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued ahead of a disturbance which is forecast to become Tropical Storm Isaias.

At 11 a.m., the disturbance was located 940 east-southeast of the Leeward Islands with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph with higher gusts.

Some strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the system is forecast to become a tropical storm Tuesday night or Wednesday.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the following areas:

  • Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra
  • U.S. Virgin Islands
  • British Virgin Islands
  • Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
  • Guadeloupe, Martinique, and St. Martin
  • Saba and St. Eustatius
  • St. Maartin
  • Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with Haiti

The system is moving toward the west near 23 mph and this general motion should continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is forecast to move through the Leeward Islands on Wednesday, and near or over the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday night, and near or over Hispaniola on Thursday.

According to CBS4 Chief Meteorologist Craig Setzer, it is still too early to tell exact impacts in Florida, but check hurricane supplies, shutters, and evacuation plans in case they are needed.

Copyright 2020 CBSMiami. All rights reserved.

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