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Higher rain chances this week

We could see more rainfall this week as disturbances and deep moisture move into the region.
We could see more rainfall this week as disturbances and deep moisture move into the region.(WCTV)
Published: Aug. 10, 2020 at 1:22 PM EDT
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - After a fairly dry weekend over most of the Big Bend and South Georgia, things will change with the new work week. Several factors will increase rain chances during the week.

At the surface and lower levels of the atmosphere, high pressure was in place over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Monday. Meanwhile, farther aloft, a weak center of high pressure was over eastern Texas. This high aloft is expected to shift westward and bring a northwesterly flow over the region by Tuesday. This will bring in disturbances aloft that will help provide additional lift to develop showers and storms. A weak trough of low pressure at the surface in the Southeast is expected to be another ingredient to bring better rain chances.

Meanwhile, a moist profile through out the atmosphere will be a little juicier than it was Monday. The moisture availability will be another factor to fire up showers and storms. Once sea breezes and outflow boundaries from decaying thunderstorms enter the mix, it will only increase the odds of storms.

The American GFS ensemble model average showing potential rainfall totals through Friday night.
The American GFS ensemble model average showing potential rainfall totals through Friday night.(WCTV)

Rain chances will be near 50% Monday, but will steadily increase through Thursday. Odds of showers and storms will be at 60% Tuesday and 70% Wednesday and Thursday. The American GFS model ensemble average is calling for rainfall totals to be between 1 to 2 inches over most of the viewing area through Friday night, but higher localized can’t be ruled out.

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