Slight risk of severe weather Sunday night

Severe Weather
Severe Weather(WCTV Pinpoint Weather)
Published: Nov. 29, 2020 at 11:07 AM EST|Updated: Nov. 29, 2020 at 9:16 PM EST
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - Strong to severe storms are possible across the Big Bend and South Georgia Sunday night.

A low-pressure system is moving across the southeastern United States bringing heavy rain across the region. The low-pressure system will strengthen and move to the northeast bringing a warm and cold front through the region. Showers and storms will develop along the fronts.

As of 9:08 p.m., storms were moving through the western Big Bend and South Georgia The storms will continue to move east overnight. They will reach the central Big Bend and South Georgia counties between midnight and 2:00 a.m. Storms will then continue through the early morning hours reaching the eastern half of the region between 2:00 a.m and 4:00 a.m.

The main hazard with these storms is damaging wind gusts. However, there is a small chance for isolated tornadoes tonight. The NWS Tallahassee’s evening weather balloon data showed a lack of instability (energy) in the region. However, there is still enough wind shear (spin) in the atmosphere for isolated tornadoes as the cold front moves through the area.

Downloading the WCTV Pinpoint Weather App is a great way to stay up to date on the storms as they move through the area. Also, the WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to watch the storms both on-air and online.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - An developing storm system over the Southeast Sunday morning has the potential to bring strong to severe storms in the Big Bend and South Georgia around and after dusk Sunday.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed nearly all of the viewing area in a level 2 (slight) risk of severe weather from Sunday through 7 a.m. Monday. The biggest threats will be damaging winds from stronger thunderstorms along with an isolated threat of a tornado or two.

An upper-level trough of low pressure was centered over Texas as it became more amplified while a surface low was developing along the Louisiana coast Sunday morning. The trough will help provide uplift and help deepen the low as its forecast to move northeastward Sunday into Monday. The storm system will bring better dynamics with changing wind speeds and direction with height. A warm front, situated over the Gulf of Mexico and Central Florida Sunday morning, is forecast to lift northward and provide more moisture and buoyancy to bring a better environment for stronger storms. The warm front would also provide a more east to southeast flow and not only help bring in the moisture but also bring that wind shift at the surface to provide a better potential for strong to severe storms.

Sunday morning and afternoon: The clouds will stick around all day with a good chance of light to moderate rainfall. It would be a good day to bring an umbrella. Model guidance hints at the warm front moving northward through the viewing area mid and late afternoon with higher dewpoints behind it.

Sunday evening and overnight: As the front lifts into South Georgia and the surface low inches closer, small-scale, short-term models are hinting at heavy rain and storms moving into the western counties between 6 p.m. and 8 p.m. with eastward progression continuing into the evening. With the winds at the surface out of the southeast and from the southwest a few thousand feet above the ground at a higher speed along with some moisture, there is a chance of stronger storms to develop with a potential of 58+ mph gusts and an isolated tornado. The limiting factors for the severe threat are sufficient heat and greater moisture. Regardless of the limitations, the threat is not zero and those in the Big Bend and South Georgia should make sure there is a way to receive watches and warnings overnight (whether it’s the Pinpoint Weather App, a NOAA Weather Radio, or other means).

Even outside of thunderstorms, the pressure gradient from the deepening storm system have the potential to bring sustained winds between 10-20 mph with higher gusts.

The National Weather Service has provided suggestions on sheltering when severe weather strikes:

Monday morning: The front is forecast to pass through the I-75 corridor around or before sunrise Monday. The sky should clear out slowly throughout the day, but the pressure gradient from the exiting low will still remain through the day and keep winds out of the northwest between 10 to 20 mph.

The Pinpoint Weather Team will provide updates online, on-air, on the app, and on the Pinpoint Weather social media accounts (here and here).

This story was updated to add severe weather best practices from the National Weather Service.

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