Rain chances to fluctuate through the weekend
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - A ridge of high pressure aloft will keep the full force of storm systems out of the area, but cold fronts will get close enough to put some rain chances late week trough the final weekend of March.
Multiple waves of upper-level troughs of low pressure were observed on water vapor imagery over the eastern Great Lakes and over the Southwest U.S. Wednesday afternoon. The first wave was associated with a surface low Wisconsin and a cold front near the Mississippi River, based on surface maps.
The second trough is forecast do deepen a surface low and bring a cold front into the Deep South Thursday. The surface low, upper-level energy, a strong wind field and deep moisture will set the stage again for another severe weather outbreak over the Deep South Thursday. The Storm Prediction Center has placed much of the South under a heightened threat of long-track tornadoes as well as damaging winds and hail. Thursday’s forecast for the Big Bend and South Georgia is forecast to be warm and breezy with a partly sunny sky. The high will be in the lower 80s inland on Thursday.
Latest SPC outlook adds a MODERATE (4/5) risk zone across parts of Mississippi- including Metro Jackson for Thursday’s risk. Again, if storms can fire in tomorrow’s environment, damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes may accompany those storms. #mswx @WLBT pic.twitter.com/II2pjmghgv— Patrick Ellis WLBT (@PatrickEllisWx) March 24, 2021
A ridge of high pressure aloft stretched from the Caribbean Sea to off the Southeast coast will be the Big Bend and South Georgia’s guardian. The ridge will keep the trough and surface low to the west and north of the viewing area, leaving the threat of the stronger weather away. The low is forecast to be over the eastern Great Lakes Friday morning with the cold front near the viewing area. The SPC has placed Miller County, Ga. and points north under a level 1 (marginal) risk of severe weather with a “normal” thunderstorm risk elsewhere. Rain chances will be around 40% Friday with the warm and muggy weather sticking around. The Friday morning low will be near 65 and a high near 85. The cold front will likely linger across the Southeast Friday into Saturday.
The weekend weather will be fairly similar with respect to warm and muggy conditions along with a mix of clouds and sun. Rain chances will be at 10% Saturday with the morning low in the 60s and a high in the mid 80s inland. Another cold front is forecast to move into the eastern U.S., but the upper level ridge will continue to be another blocker of storm systems and slow the cold front as it nears Sunday.
Sunday will be the day of better rain and thunderstorm chances, though at 30%. Highs will be in the mid 80s inland Sunday with a morning low in the lower to mid 60s.
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