Charles’ Pinpoint Weather Forecast - Saturday, April 17
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - The rain coverage decreased Saturday morning compared to around dawn, but a few light showers were moving through the Big Bend as of around 10 a.m. Rain chances will decrease in the morning and early afternoon, but a stationary front is forecast to lift northward as a warm front in the afternoon, bringing another risk for rain and some thunderstorms. There is a low-grade risk of thunderstorms in the Big Bend and the Florida-Georgia border to reach severe limits. Limiting factors will be convective energy as the clouds are forecast to stick around and limit daytime heating. Also, timing of when the front will move northward will play a role in that threat of thunderstorms. Highs Saturday will reach into the mid 70s in most locations with rain chances overall at 60%.
The showers and storms will remain Saturday evening and night. There is a chance showers may linger into Sunday morning. A weak center of low pressure is forecast to develop at the surface and drag a cold front through the area Sunday, keeping rain chances in the forecast through the day. Severe weather is not anticipated as the storms are forecast to stay to the south of the viewing area. Highs Sunday will be near 70 with a 60% chance of rain.
The chance of rain will linger overnight Sunday into Monday morning, though will be lower in the morning (~30%) as the cold front finally moves southward. Drier air and a clearer sky is expected to take place later on Monday with a high close to 80. But the break in the rain will only be temporary. The low Tuesday morning will be in the mid 50s.
A trough of low pressure in the mid levels is forecast to enter Texas Monday and push eastward Tuesday, and bring energy aloft. Recent models have shifted the higher moisture amounts farther south. Because of the closeness of a front and subtle shifts in guidance models, rain chances are still being kept in the forecast though the better odds of rain will be in the Southeast Big Bend for Tuesday. Highs will be near 80.
With the help of the upper-level trough, a cold front is forecast to push through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday. After the cold front passes, high pressure at the surface will clear the sky and bring drier conditions. Lows Wednesday morning will be in the upper 50s with highs in the 70s with a mostly sunny sky. The temperatures lower more Thursday morning with a low near 50 - just a few degrees below normal - and a high during the day in the upper 70s with a sunny sky.
Guidance models differ with Friday as one keeps the area dry while another model brings in rain later in the day as another trough of low pressure moves in aloft and develops a storm system. Confidence in the forecast is low this far out; therefore, only a very low chance of rain is kept in the forecast for Friday with a partly cloudy sky. The morning low Friday will be in the mid 50s with a high near 80.
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