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Charles’ Pinpoint Weather Forecast - Sunday, April 18

Published: Apr. 18, 2021 at 10:05 AM EDT
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - The rain was back Sunday morning with coverage decreasing as of 9:30 a.m. The heaviest rain was over most of Taylor, Suwannee, and Lafayette counties. The thunderstorms offshore subsided, but more action could be on the way for the rest of Sunday.

A front was located over Central Florida Sunday morning while convection was seen developing over the western Gulf of Mexico. A little bit of energy in the mid levels and the front will likely trigger another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening, but likely confined to the Big Bend and I-75 corridor. Overall, rain chances will be at 50% after noon with highs in the lower to mid 70s.

Rain chances, though low, may linger overnight into Monday morning. A brief clearing is in the forecast Monday afternoon as a trough aloft pushes the front through. A trough forecast to move through Texas Monday is expected to de-amplify but still bring energy aloft. Despite the mid-level lift, the greater low-level moisture will likely be just to the south of the Big Bend or over the southeastern Big Bend. For now, rain chances Tuesday will be near 50% with the greatest odds of rain over the Southeast Big Bend.

A cold front is forecast to move through the area Wednesday, bringing dry air and a clearer sky. Highs Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 70s with a partly cloudy sky. Lows Thursday and Friday mornings will be in the upper 40s to near 50 - below normal for this time of year. Highs Thursday will be in the upper 70s. More cloud cover may move in Friday with only a very low chance of a stray shower. Highs will be in the upper 70s Friday.

Both global models (American GFS and the European ECMWF) hint at another round of showers and potential thunderstorms Saturday, but the models disagree with the setup. Because of the distance in time and low confidence in key details, rain chances will be on the lower end as of this post. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several days.

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