Potential Tropical Cyclone Three closes in on the Louisiana coastline
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. - As of 5 p.m. on Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three was 125 miles south of Morgan City, Louisiana. Three has sustained winds of 45 mph and is moving to the north at 16 mph. Air Force Hurricane Hunters investigated the storm Friday afternoon. They found that the storm’s center is disorganized, which is why the system remains a potential tropical cyclone instead of a tropical storm.
The current track predicts the storm to organize into a weak tropical storm early on Saturday before making landfall along the eastern Louisiana coastline. Afterward, Three will move inland into southern Mississippi Saturday afternoon and weaken into a tropical depression early on Sunday.
Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for southeastern Louisana, the Mississippi coastline, and the Florida panhandle, including Pensacola and Destin.
Direct impacts are still not anticipated in the Big Bend and South Georgia. Scattered showers and storms on the system’s outskirts will still reach our region over the weekend. Some storms may be strong to severe with isolated tornadoes possible. Hazardous marine conditions are also expected across the Forgotten Coast, including high seas and dangerous rip currents.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla.- As of 1 p.m. on Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone Three was in the northern Gulf of Mexico, south of the Louisiana coastline. It is moving to the north at 14 mph and has sustained winds of 45 mph.
High wind shear is still impacting the Potential Tropical Cyclone keeping the convection on the eastern side of the storm and preventing it from further organization. While the storm is forecasted to strengthen into Tropical Storm Claudette, it will remain relatively weak due to the wind shear.
The current track has the storm making landfall Saturday morning on the eastern Louisiana coastline as a Tropical Storm. The storm is then forecasted to weaken into a tropical depression before moving inland into Mississippi and Alabama.
Direct impacts from the storm are not expected in the Big Bend and South Georgia. However, scattered showers and storms due to moisture on the outskirts of the system is expected across our area throughout the weekend with the heaviest rainfall staying west of Tallahassee.
The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will watch the storm throughout the upcoming weekend both on air and online.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)- Invest 92-L now has a 90% chance for development over the next two days. The storm’s center has moved slightly to the east in the National Hurricane Center’s 8 a.m. update. Storms around the low-pressure system are still widely unorganized. Most of the convection surrounding the storm Thursday morning was well to the east of the low due to wind shear. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters will send a plane into the system Thursday afternoon.
Forecasters predict that Invest 92-L will strengthen into either a subtropical or tropical depression by Friday morning. If the storm strengthens into a tropical cyclone, it will be assigned the next name on the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season storm name list, Claudette. Most models currently forecast the storm to make landfall in Louisiana on Saturday. However, it is important to note that there is still some uncertainty in the storm’s long term forecast. Especially since it hasn’t strengthened into a tropical cyclone yet.
Even though the storm’s center is forecast to stay to the west of the Big Bend and South Georgia, moisture from the system will move into the WCTV viewing area this weekend. Heavy rain is possible both Saturday and Sunday. Minor flooding to flash flooding isn’t out of the question if the storm’s track shifts to the east. Meteorologists are also expecting hazardous marine conditions along the Gulf Coast. High surf and dangerous rip currents are forecasted across the Forgotten Coast as the storm traverses the Gulf of Mexico.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - Invest 92-L was still spinning in the Bay of Campeche as of Noon on Wednesday. The thunderstorms developing around the low are still disorganized as the system interacts with the Yucatan Peninsula and southern Mexico. Over the last several days, high wind shear and the storm’s close proximity to land have kept the system from developing.
The low is not expected to strengthen into a tropical cyclone on Wednesday as the system continues to interact with land. However, on Thursday Invest 92-L will begin to move north into the Western Gulf of Mexico. This will potentially allow the storm to strengthen into a tropical depression by the end of the week. The National Hurricane Center has a 70% chance of development in the next 2 days and a 90% chance of development in the next 5 days.
Global models such as the GFS and the ECMWF are forecasting the storm to make landfall in Louisiana on Saturday. However, there’s still uncertainty in Invest 92-L’s long term forecast, so it’s important to check back for updates. Even though it’s unlikely the storm will directly impact the Big Bend and South Georgia, moisture from the storm will probably move into our area, increasing chances for rainfall this weekend and into next week.
Hazardous marine conditions are also likely as the storm moves through the Gulf of Mexico. High seas and rip currents are possible all along the Forgotten Coast. The rip current risk for Wednesday is moderate while the risk for Thursday is high.
The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the storm as it traverses the Gulf of Mexico.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - A broad area of low pressure in the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico still has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone, and potentially bring heavy rain to parts of the Gulf Coast as soon as Friday.
The National Hurricane Center have been watching this area near Mexico since the weekend for tropical development. They are giving the broad low a 40% chance of development over the next two days, according to their 2 p.m. outlook on Tuesday, with a 80% chance of development over the next five days.
The low is expected to begin a northward trek by Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center, and potentially become a tropical depression late in the week once it moves more into the western Gulf of Mexico.
The broad low was battling some drier air on the northern side Tuesday afternoon with wind shear appearing to be present north of the Yucatan Peninsula. There was also a low-level counterclockwise flow in the lower levels in the Bay of Campeche north of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico based on GOES-16 visible satellite imagery. Still, the low gave an organized appearance and wasn’t showing much movement Tuesday. Rainfall will be the biggest concern for the region until the low begins its northward path.
Ocean heat content was present in that region, a good source of energy for a developing tropical cyclone, but not as elevated as the eastern Gulf of Mexico and most of the Caribbean Sea where it’s almost double the content in the western Gulf.
Both the American GFS and European models show the low moving northward to nearly east of Brownsville, Texas Friday morning, but the low could pull in drier air from the north and limit development. The models have been persistent with a northward track as it rides along the western edge of the Bermuda High.
Whatever the designation given, the low will likely bring in moisture assuming it maintains a poorly-organized, dry-air-intruded, asymmetric appearance. So far, both aforementioned global models bet on bringing higher atmospheric moisture into the Big Bend and South Georgia Friday into Saturday and remaining elevated into Monday.
There is a caveat: Forecasting tropical cyclone development and movement is tricky with a disturbance that is not moving. That’s what was happening to the low Tuesday afternoon. Confidence in a forecast will increase as the low begins to move.
The broad low will continue to be watched into the weekend, but it’s looking like it will be more of a rain and a higher-surf threat for the viewing area at the end of the work week. So far, rain chances for Saturday and Sunday were set to 50% area-wide.
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