Isolated showers & storms possible this evening as Tropical Depression Claudette continues east.
There is a marginal risk for severe weather Sunday night.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)- At 5 p.m., Tropical Depression Claudette was 80 miles west of Columbia, South Carolina, with sustained winds of 30 mph. The storm is picking up speed, moving to the ENE at 17 mph. Claudette’s center of circulation became slightly misshaped as it moved through Georgia and into South Carolina on Sunday.
As Claudette moved to the east, the showers and storms that impacted the Big Bend and South Georgia slowly moved through the area. Heavy rain fell in the Big Bend Saturday night and Monday morning. Between 7:30 p.m. Saturday evening and 7:30 p.m. Sunday evening, radar estimated that almost five inches fell in Liberty county, just over five inches in Franklin County, around three and a half inches in Taylor county, and just under three inches in Wakulla County.
Isolated showers and storms will linger through the Big Bend and South Georgia Sunday night as Claudette moves to the northeast. There is a very low chance for some storms to be severe, with a small chance for isolated tornadoes. The SPC has issued a Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather across the Big Bend and South Georgia.
The National Hurricane Center’s track predicts that Claudette will re-strengthen into a tropical storm early Monday morning as it crosses into South Carolina. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect along the North Carolina coastline. The track then takes Claudette back out into the Atlantic on Monday afternoon. Claudette will then continue into the northern Atlantic off the coast of Nova Scotia before dissipating.
For now, there are no other disturbances in the Atlantic basin.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - As Tropical Depression Claudette moved eastward Sunday morning, heavy rain and a low threat of severe weather remained over the viewing area for the remainder of the day.
Claudette, which was centered 15 miles east-northeast of Atlanta as of the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, is forecast to keep the same direction of movement but accelerate through the Deep South through the rest of the weekend. The With that movement, the severe weather threat will shift farther east, but keep most of the viewing under a level 1 risk (out of 5) risk of damaging wind and isolated tornadoes according to the Storm Prediction Center. The greater threat will be northeast of the area where the better dynamics (wind shear) will be located.
The weather balloon data from Tallahassee Sunday morning show reasonable shear from the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere, but convective energy was lacking. The lack of energy was likely because of the earlier showers and thunderstorms and cloud cover at the time of the balloon launch. Whether that convective energy can be restored depends on enough breaks in the clouds can destabilize the atmosphere to generate and sustain showers and thunderstorms. Model-based analysis from the Storm Prediction Center hints at plenty of convective energy to the west of Tallahassee as of 10 a.m., and is forecast to return. But, as Claudette moves easterly, the better wind shear dynamics are forecast to decrease through the morning and early afternoon.
A threat of localized flash flooding is also a concern. That’s more of the cast along the coastal counties and the southeastern Big Bend where training rain and thunderstorms continued to move from west to east Sunday morning. Twelve-hour Doppler radar estimates showed rainfall totals between 1 to 4 inches with Liberty and Franklin counties getting 3 to 4 inches in some locations.
The Sunday morning runs of an in-house, short-term guidance model (GRAF) have been suggesting clearing of the rain and storms in the afternoon as the remnants of Claudette move eastward. Another public-run model (HRRR) has not initialized as well as the aforementioned one, but has shown some improvement in the rain coverage in the afternoon though not to the extent as the other. Given the deep, moist environment expected, rain chances will remain Sunday afternoon, but with lower coverage than the morning.
Be sure to download the WCTV Pinpoint Weather app to receive updates, when warranted, from the weather team as well as watches, warnings, and alerts to when lightning is near a user’s location.
This story was updated with analysis on the severe threat based on newer data late morning. Stay tuned to the WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team for the latest.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)- Claudette weakened into a tropical depression on Saturday afternoon. As of 8 p.m., Claudette was 75 miles west of Montgomery, Alabama, with sustained winds of 35 mph. The tropical depression is moving to the northeast at 15 mph.
Claudette’s rain bands are traversing North Florida and South Georgia, bringing showers and storms through the area. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 7:00 a.m. eastern time Sunday morning over the Big Bend and South Georgia, including Franklin, Gadsden, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Taylor, Wakulla, Baker, Ben Hill, Brooks, Colquitt, Cook, Decatur, Dougherty, Grady, Irwin, Lanier, Lee, Lowndes Mitchell, Thomas, Tift, Turner, and Worth counties. Chances for showers and storms will continue overnight tonight. A few storms may be strong to severe, with high winds and isolated tornadoes possible. Showers and storms, along with additional rain bands, will move through Sunday morning as well. These storms may also be strong to severe. Rain will linger through Sunday afternoon as Claudette moves farther to the east. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a marginal risk for severe weather on Sunday.
With storms possible overnight, it’s important to have multiple ways of receiving weather information. The WCTV Pinpoint Weather App is a great tool to receive updates along with NOAA Weather radios.
Tropical Depression Claudette’s long-term track takes the storm through Alabama and Georgia Saturday night and Sunday morning. Sunday afternoon Claudette will continue into the Carolinas before re-emerging into the Atlantic on Monday. After moving back over the ocean, Claudette could strengthen into a Tropical Storm. Therefore, Tropical storm Watches have been issued along North Carolina’s coastline. Claudette’s track then takes the system into the Northern Atlantic through the middle of next week.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - After days in the Bay of Campeche and the Gulf of Mexico, the potential tropical cyclone was no longer a potential Saturday morning as it moved into the Southeast U.S. and brought a threat of heavy rain and severe weather.
The low “finally [had] enough of a well-defined center and organized convection to be considered a tropical storm,” the National Hurricane Center wrote in their discussion for the 5 a.m. advisory. As of 11 a.m., the sheared and asymmetric tropical storm’s center was located 75 miles north-northeast of New Orleans, La. with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. Most of those winds were farther away from the center of circulation along with the rain and thunderstorm bands.
Some of those rain bands were triggering tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings in southern Alabama and Florida’s western panhandle Saturday morning. Since midnight, there were at least six tornado reports from the western panhandle and South Alabama as of 11 a.m. Saturday according to the National Weather Service. There was also a 50-mph wind gust recorded at Gulf Coast State College in Panama City Saturday morning.
A tornado watch was issued for Seminole and Miller counties until 8 p.m. Saturday. The watch was also in effect for areas west of the Apalachicola River. A tornado watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes in the watch area, and that those in the watch need to be weather ready in the event that any warnings are issued by the National Weather Service.
10:35 AM ET: A Tornado WATCH has been issued by the Storm Prediction Center for Seminole and Miller counties and locations west until 8 PM EDT. A tornado watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes in the watch area. #gawx pic.twitter.com/Q9nur9LpcN— Charles Roop (@CharlesRoopWCTV) June 19, 2021
The Storm Prediction Center placed the western viewing area under a level 1 risk of severe weather for Saturday with Seminole County and locations west were in a level 2 threat. The modes of concern are damaging winds and isolated tornadoes.
Landfalling and nearby tropical cyclones can bring a threat of tornadoes, with some storms more so than others. Many of these can develop and decay very quickly in the rain bands. Weather balloon data from Tallahassee 8 a.m. Saturday show decent low-level turning with height of the wind direction and higher wind speed aloft. This can help create rotating thunderstorms within the rain bands with the stronger thunderstorms. The shear is usually best in the east-northeastern side of a tropical cyclone (Schultz and Cecil, 2009), though previous research showed that they can also develop on the east-southeastern side of the circulation after landfall (Roop, 2013). The convective energy was also present Saturday morning, though not in large amounts based on the weather balloon data.
One rain band that was moving toward the Apalachicola River was showing signs of weakening as of 11:30 a.m. Saturday, but one band near Pensacola was being watched as it moved easterly. There is also a chance of isolated thunderstorms to develop ahead of the bands that could bring heavy rain as well as a threat of gusty winds and an isolated tornado.
The Storm Prediction Center also highlighted a level 1 risk of severe weather again for Sunday, though for South Georgia.
Be sure to have multiple ways to receive weather watches and warnings, including the WCTV Pinpoint Weather app.
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