Charles’ Pinpoint Weather Forecast - Saturday, Oct. 23

Published: Oct. 23, 2021 at 9:47 AM EDT
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - The fall weather made itself known Saturday morning with temperatures mainly in the 50s with patchy fog in the eastern Big Bend. Local airports reported improved visibility by 9 a.m., and a mostly sunny sky is in the forecast later in the day. Higher-level clouds may pass by in the afternoon and evening, but sunshine will still be there with highs reaching into the lower to mid 80s. The lows Sunday morning will return into the 50s in many inland locations under a mostly clear sky.

The sky will be more partly cloudy Sunday with a chance of higher-level clouds returning with highs back into the 80s. Return flow (east to southeasterly winds) will begin Sunday night into Monday and increase moisture in the area. Rain chances will increase to 20% Monday with highs in the upper 80s as a cold front arrives into the eastern U.S. The front is forecast to pass Tuesday, and bring only a very slight chance of a stay shower with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows Wednesday morning will be in the 60s and feel a little drier, but it will not last long.

The global guidance models continue to hint at a large-scale trough of low pressure aloft to move from the west early in the week and arrive in the Midwest by mid week. The dynamics will allow for the development of a surface low, but the American GFS and European models differ on specifics on location and setup of the surface low and cold front. The dynamics and setup, despite the differences, will be enough to bring higher rain chances along with a risk of stronger thunderstorms. The remaining uncertainties are the timing of arrival and departure of the cold front and rain as well as the strength and likelihood of strong to severe thunderstorms. Keep checking back for updates over the next several days.

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