Charles’ First Alert Forecast - Saturday, May 21

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - Rain chances will be a little higher this weekend than in recent days. Small-scale disturbances aloft, warm and moist air, and daytime heating will increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Big Bend and South Georgia.

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms already developed earlier Saturday morning and helped to bring in cloud cover from the south and into the viewing area. The question that remained mid-morning Saturday was whether the increased cloud coverage would limit daytime heating and limit the rain chances during the afternoon and evening.

8:35 AM: Good Saturday morning! A cluster of showers & t'storms developed in the Gulf earlier this morning. The cloud cover from the storms is moving over the Big Bend. The question is how much will the clouds limit the daytime heating to produce storms later today. #flwx #gaw pic.twitter.com/z8dPxQbl04
— Charles Roop (@CharlesRoopWCTV) May 21, 2022

The Storm Prediction Center placed the viewing area under a marginal (level 1 out of 5) threat of severe weather Saturday with damaging wind and hail as the modes of concern.

Rain chances will stay somewhat elevated Sunday at 50% with highs back in the 80s.

A cold front is forecast to approach the area Monday into Tuesday and disintegrate. Rain chances will be at 60% Monday and 40% Tuesday.

A large-scale trough of low pressure aloft will likely bring a second cold front into the eastern U.S. Thursday into Friday and increase the odds of showers and storms again. So far, rain chances were at 50% Thursday and Friday, but will likely increase if guidance models continue to show the trough and front move into the region.

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