Charles’ First Alert Forecast - Sunday, May 22

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - Showers and storms were already developing again in the Gulf of Mexico Sunday morning. Unlike Saturday, the storms offshore were southwest of Apalachicola and nearing Panama City as of 10 a.m. Sunday. There is a chance that outflow boundaries from the storms could help initiate additional development in the Big Bend. Concurrently, few northward-moving light showers were displayed on the radar near and south of St. George Island.

With daytime heating and small-scale boundaries, rain chances are anticipated to increase throughout the rest of Sunday. Highs will range from the lower to mid 80s with rain chances at 50%. There will be another very-low risk of damaging wind gusts and hail with some of these storms, according to the Storm Prediction Center and the National Weather Service.

5/22 4 AM ET: There is a Marginal Risk for Severe Thunderstorms this afternoon & evening across the tri-state area. The main threat is isolated damaging wind gusts, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall may lead to poor drainage flooding. #FLwx #ALwx #GAwx pic.twitter.com/GLlA4TBmFs
— NWS Tallahassee (@NWSTallahassee) May 22, 2022

A cold front is forecast to approach the area Monday and increase the rain and storm chances to 70% with highs in the lower 80s. The front is expected to dissipate Tuesday and, with weak ridging of higher pressure aloft, rain chances will decrease to 40%.

The chance of showers and storms will increase again Thursday into Friday as a second cold front is anticipated to enter the Southeast U.S. Rain chances will be at 70% Thursday and, for now, 50% Friday. There is a chance the cold front will move just to the south of the Big Bend next Saturday, but forecast confidence isn’t high yet as it’s seven days out.

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