Hurricane in East Pacific being watched for possible development in Atlantic basin

The National Hurricane Center is watching Hurricane Agatha with a "moderate" possibility of its...
The National Hurricane Center is watching Hurricane Agatha with a "moderate" possibility of its remnants regenerating in the Atlantic basin mid to late week.(WCTV First Alert Weather via the National Hurricane Center)
Published: May. 30, 2022 at 10:15 AM EDT|Updated: May. 31, 2022 at 4:55 AM EDT
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - A hurricane off the west Mexican coast has a “moderate” chance of development if and when it emerges in the Atlantic basin, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane Agatha, centered 65 miles southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico as of 8 a.m. EDT Monday, is forecast to make landfall in the western Mexican coast by the end of Monday. Agatha is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain over Mexico as soon as Tuesday and move slowly northeastward. What’s left of the low may enter the Bay of Campeche, Gulf of Mexico, or the western Caribbean Sea mid to late week according to the National Hurricane Center.

Beyond its possible reemergence, uncertainty remained in the forecast with respect to intensity and classification and path. The path it takes into the Atlantic basin will, in part, determine whether the low will impact the Southeast U.S. or stay far enough south. It’s path will also determine whether, as some guidance models predict, whether the remnants of Agatha will encounter an unfavorable environment for tropical (or subtropical) development.

Operational and ensemble runs of global guidance models showed no consensus on the path of the low and ranged from the eastern Gulf of Mexico to the Florida Straits with wide differences in timing. A cold front is anticipated to approach the Southeast U.S. Thursday and Friday. The front would be one element that would keep the low away from the Big Bend and South Georgia.

The anticipated remnant low has a 40% chance of development, according to the National Hurricane Center Monday morning.

If the low were to regenerate into a tropical storm from a remnant low, it would be renamed Alex. If it maintained its tropical cyclone status when it moved between basins, Agatha would get to keep its name. The World Meteorological Organization decided in 2000 that named tropical cyclones that cross from the Atlantic basin into the eastern Pacific basin would retain their names (see section 3.3). The last named storm to do so was Hurricane Otto in November 2016 when it moved from the Caribbean Sea to the eastern Pacific Ocean.

This story was updated to correct and clarify if and when tropical cyclone names would change when transitioning between basins.

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