Remnants of ‘Agatha’ have a moderate chance of tropical development

The National Hurricane Center has the odds of development of the Pacific-based-but-remnant...
The National Hurricane Center has the odds of development of the Pacific-based-but-remnant Hurricane Agatha to 70% over the next five days.(WCTV First Alert Weather via the National Hurricane Center)
Published: May. 31, 2022 at 3:54 PM EDT
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - The hurricane formerly known as Agatha has a high chance of redevelopment in the Atlantic basin according to the National Hurricane Center Tuesday afternoon.

The agency has given the remnant low a 70% chance of development over the next 5 days with a 30% chance over the next two days.

The Pacific-based storm made landfall in southern Mexico Monday night. As it interacted with the land and mountainous terrain, the storm degraded to a remnant system Tuesday morning. The deep convection associated with it deteriorated with the deepest thunderstorms well away from the low’s center.

The two main global operational and ensemble guidance models, the American GFS and European models, differed with the storm’s future intensity and path. As of the earlier Tuesday runs, the GFS kept the storm weak with a path farther south over the northern Caribbean Sea and into Cuba and the Florida Straits by the weekend. Meanwhile, the European model and it’s ensemble average had a more potent storm with respect to organization and central pressure than the GFS. The Euro also had the path farther north and impacting the Southwest Florida coast Saturday morning.

Whatever is left of Agatha will have to fight through wind shear and any land it interacts with. It also depends on whether the center of the low will relocate to a different spot and leave some of the current forecast runs invalid.

As mentioned Monday, a cold front is still forecast to approach the southeastern U.S. by Friday. This front would act as a blockade to keep the low’s center to the south of the viewing area.

The First Alert Weather Team will continue to monitor the progress of the system. As of this update, the storm will likely be a rainmaker for portions of South Florida.

“Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system,” the NHC said in their statement Tuesday afternoon. “Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next couple of days, spreading across western Cuba, southern Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday.”

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