NOAA: Above-normal hurricane season still anticipated
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - The rest of the Atlantic hurricane season will likely still be above-average, NOAA’s lead hurricane season outlook forecaster Matthew Rosencrans announced Thursday morning.
In an updated forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said in a conference call that the Atlantic basin will have 14 to 20 named storms with 6 to 10 of those becoming hurricanes. Three to 5 of those hurricanes could be “major” - maximum sustained winds of 111 mph or greater.
Before the start of hurricane season in May, NOAA forecast a range of between 14 and 21 named storms. Of these, 6 to 10 could become a hurricane with winds of 74 mph or higher, with 3 to 6 major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or higher.
NOAA cited several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that still favor an active hurricane season. These include La Nina, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African Monsoon, and likely above-normal Atlantic sea surface temperatures.
Colorado State University also announced Thursday that they have slightly decreased their forecast from 20 named storms to 18 named storms for the 2022 season. Of these, CSU predicted 8 will be hurricanes, 4 of which being major hurricanes with winds in excess of 111 mph.
As a reminder, the peak of hurricane season has yet to be reached. It only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for us.
As shown below, the most active time of hurricane season is September. The Gulf of Mexico is notoriously active later on in the season, especially in October; the month when Michael made landfall in 2018.
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