Mike’s First Alert Evening Forecast - Monday, Aug. 15

The new work week starts dry, but numerous showers and storms are anticipated by late week. Chief Meteorologist Mike McCall has the details.
Published: Aug. 15, 2022 at 5:01 PM EDT
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TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - The weather was quiet and a bit drier to start the new work week. Monday’s morning lows were in the mid to upper 60s in many locations - mostly in South Georgia closer to I-75 and the eastern Big Bend. A northeasterly flow helped to bring in some drier air.

Also, drier air aloft has helped to keep convection to zero as of 4 p.m. Monday. There is still a chance of a stray shower or storm Monday afternoon and evening, but the odds will be very low. Lows Tuesday night are expected to be in the 70s.

A cold front is forecast to approach the region Tuesday, which will help increase the chance of showers and storms once again. The odds, so far, will be the highest in the Big Bend based on guidance models. Highs will be back into the 90s with rain chances at 40% Tuesday and 30% Wednesday.

As the ridge of high pressure aloft nudges west (and the Pacific Northwest bakes again), a large-scale trough will dip into the eastern U.S. by mid. Rain chances will increase as passing impulses in the mid-levels of the atmosphere and better upper-level dynamics will aid in development. On top of the mid-level help, the aforementioned cold front will likely linger in the Southeast through the new weekend. Highs will reach into the 90s with lows back in the 70s. Rain chances will range between 70% and 80% Thursday through Saturday.

The ridge aloft in the Atlantic could build back west into the viewing area and temper rain chances slightly. For now, the odds of showers and thunderstorms will be at 50% Sunday and Monday.

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