Mike’s Evening First Alert Forecast - Wednesday, Aug. 17

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - It took a while for showers and storms to fire up, but scattered activity lit up on the radar before 3 p.m. Wednesday. Heavy rain and storms remained mainly in the eastern Big Bend and near some coastal areas as of 6 p.m., but the activity is forecast to decrease in coverage and intensity as daytime heating wanes.

The Storm Prediction Center placed portions of the viewing area under a marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk of severe weather for the area on Thursday. The setup of a surface cold front in the Southeast and a large-scale trough of low pressure aloft in the eastern U.S. will increase the odds of storms in the region.

Rain chances are forecast to be higher on Thursday and Friday (80%) with high temperatures near 90 inland.

The trough and associated lift appear to move slightly north based on model guidance; therefore, for now, rain chances have been slightly scaled back to 50%-60% for the weekend. Highs will be near 90 to the lower 90s.

Guidance models do dip that trough aloft back towards the Southeast at the beginning of the new work week. This would heighten the odds of afternoon and evening showers and storms. For now, rain chances for Monday through next Wednesday at 50% to 60% with highs near 90 to the lower 90s.

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