After record streak of 70°+ morning lows, drier and cooler weather en route
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) - Another year, another record streak broken in Tallahassee with respect to warm temperatures. At least most in the Big Bend and South Georgia can finally dig in the closet for those fall decorations and place orders for those PSLs soon. Drier air and, therefore, slightly cooler morning lows will be in the forecast for at least a couple of days this week.
The expected break from the heat comes as Tallahassee recorded morning low temperatures of 70° and warmer for 100 consecutive days, according to data from NOAA. This is a consecutive-day record that breaks the previous of 91 days in 2010. Six out of the top ten consecutive days have been in the 21st century.
Overall, temperatures have increased across the planet as human-induced greenhouse gas emissions began to increase in the 19th Century. Tallahassee has not been any different with a change in the average annual temperature of over 3°F since 1970 with low temperatures alone increasing by 4°F. Half of the top ten 70-degree-plus consecutive nights have been since 2010 with last year tallying 71 nights in a row.
The changes in temperatures locally have been noticeable with the difference between the two recent 30-year average temperatures that are used to determine what’s “normal.” Overall, the daily average temperatures increased between the 1981-2010 and the 1991-2020 averages based on data pulled from NOAA.
Overall, the daily average temperatures for a year climbed with an annual average increase of nearly 0.8°F. There were some exceptions, notably from the end of October to most of November where temperatures were slightly cooler than the older 30-year period.
Though likely subtle, the summer months didn’t see a higher increase in the average daily temperature. The higher increase in temperatures occurred in the spring, early fall, and in December where the increase was over 1°F.
The early autumn increase in the average temperature, as well as the longer duration of 70-degree-plus nights, could be reflective of the lengthening duration of summer conditions. Researchers found that summers in the mid latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere have lengthened according to a published paper in 2021. Spring, fall, and winter contracted based on researcher’s findings. The shifts can be “mainly attributed to greenhouse-warming,” the authors wrote.
Drier days, cooler nights coming - for now
The cold front that will bring the relief was over the eastern Big Bend as of 5 p.m. Tuesday. It had enough lift to induce showers and a few storms in the eastern and coastal Big Bend earlier in the afternoon. Dewpoints were above 70° from Live Oak southwest to Apalachicola as of 5 p.m. Tuesday with drier dewpoints (60s and 50s) along and west of a line from Tallahassee to Tifton, Ga.
Drier air is forecast to advance southeastward along with the cold front. The big question remained: How far south will the front go? Based on recent guidance and Tuesday evening observations, the front will likely go far enough south to put most of the area’s Wednesday morning low temperatures in the 60s.
Lows will likely be near 60 in locations such as Bainbridge and Blakely, but low temperatures will steadily increase southeast of those locations with Tallahassee likely near 67°.
Places such as Perry and Live Oak will be tricky as the front will be closer to those locations. With the earlier rainfall, low-level moisture and some lingering clouds, lows near 70° for the Southeast Big Bend can’t be ruled out.
Moisture is anticipated to return first to the I-75 corridor starting Thursday and elsewhere later on. The change in flow will usher in low temperatures back into the 70s (or close to 70°) by late week in most locations. Sunday morning’s low is forecast to be near 70°, which is a degree above that morning’s normal low in Tallahassee. Slight rain chances will also stay in the forecast.
Copyright 2022 WCTV. All rights reserved.