Rob’s Tropical Thoughts: 9/21/22

Published: Sep. 21, 2022 at 7:35 AM EDT
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So much going on out there. Wow.

5 different areas of energy.

2 are named,1 has a high chance to get classified, 1 looks pretty robust, and there’s 1 other one that’s out there but not a real big deal.

So let’s look at each one.

Starting with the easy one. FIONA. Hurricane FIONA - a cat 4 storm with winds near the core at 130mph as of 5am Wednesday.

The eye is very clear. The storm is very symmetrical. The biggest rains are N and E of that center. It’s moving slowly to the N. By Friday morning the core should be passing to the W of Bermuda. That puts the island on the E side - where the biggest rains are. So there’s concern there. It’s also looking more and more like it will hold together in some fashion to bring wind and rain to the Canadian Maritimes by this weekend.

Next, let’s look into GASTON. It’s a Tropical Storm with 65mph sustained winds - almost a hurricane. Now this one isn’t near any land and shouldn’t be near any land, ever. So NBD for GASTON.

The 2 areas of energy way across the Atlantic are a long way from nowhere. The one on the graphic in YELLOW (farthest away from Africa) is really a weak one and has the best chance to fizzle soonest. The one on the graphic in ORANGE (coming off the coast of Africa) has a real chance for some development and to make some progress across the Atlantic Ocean over the next week or so. LOTS of time to watch this one and see what (if anything ) comes of it.

Finally, let me take some time to talk about the one that is most interesting... The RED circle to the SE of the Lesser Antilles. On the satellite map, it isn’t very impressive. It’s just a broad area of disorganized showers and clouds. It would be wonderful if it stayed like this. Sadly, it likely wont. As it drifts to the W, the conditions for development are favorable, so it will likely take shape and become something more serious. What and when and most importantly WHERE are all still questions that have no answers. So we don’t jump to conclusions here. If you look at the computer models map below, you’ll see the wide range of possible solutions for this Invest 98L. All over the place. It’s too soon to expect any real answers. The computers are extrapolating possibilities from something that hasn’t even formed yet, so the potential for errors is gigantic.

Ok, that’s a lot of writing to say this is a serious something that is worth watching but is still a long way away from anywhere in the Gulf. We have plenty of time to watch and see what becomes of it. It is always a good time to make sure you have a plan and supplies, just in case. But it’s too soon to worry. I like to say “prepare, not panic”.

I’ll keep updating this #TropicalThoughts post and have more on Twitter and our website and all over social media and the TV.

Thanks for reading all this and please feel free to share it.