Rob’s Tropical Thoughts: 9/23/22

Published: Sep. 23, 2022 at 8:02 AM EDT
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A totally different look to that disturbance in the Caribbean this morning. Some clear organization and more robust convection, no surprise that it got classified as Tropical Depression NINE at 5am.

So much to breakdown with TD9.

They’ll get a better fix on the center of this later this morning. From that better fix, we’ll get a better initialization of the computer guidance, and from there, I expect a few adjustments of the cone. So let’s not get too fixated on that cone just yet. I will post many updates today and all weekend and early next week.

This morning, there looked to be a little more Northward shift as I watch the satellite loop of TD9, before a little acceleration to the West in the past hour or so. The more North it goes now vs the more West can change thinking on about how much of the Gulf actually comes into play. Today is still all about watching and waiting - small changes in movement and location early can lead to big changes later with where the system ends up.

Jamaica & Cuba look like the first landmasses that will encounter TD9, as it’s too far South of Hispaniola. How much land it interacts with will impact how it’s able to develop. The water of the Caribbean is warm, and there shouldn’t be a lot of shear or obstacles for this to overcome in the next couple of days - so strengthening is likely.

Hurricane FIONA is moving past Bermuda to the West. It’s heading towards Eastern Canada, and there will be wind and rain way up there from this system.

Tropical Storm GASTON is still not near any land, nor will it be.

There’s 2 waves way across the Atlantic. 1 is farther from Africa that is less likely to develop, and 1 is closer to the coast of Africa and is much more likely to form into something and soon. Neither looks to impact our weather anytime soon (if ever).

Very busy across the Atlantic Basin. My focus will shift almost exclusively to TD9 (soon to be HERMINE). Especially early next week. There’s no tropical threats to the US this weekend. I’ll try to post updates in the mornings and evenings this weekend with the new information, and I’ll have full posts with all the graphics and such early next week. Feel free to share and if you have questions, post them here and I’ll try to answer them.