An upper-low could spoil some weekend plans

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By: Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
June 6, 2018

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — The cold front that passed us on Monday will not leave us alone. The front - along with a trough in the upper levels - is helping to bring some rain to parts of our area. While the front will fizzle out, the trough could stick around to spoil the weekend plans.

The cold front that passed Monday was stationary to the south of the Big Bend Wednesday afternoon. The front has sparked showers and storms for much of Central and South Florida for much of the week. Aloft, water vapor imagery and upper-air maps showed a trough digging into the Southeast. The front and trough have helped to fire up rain and storms for places along the southern Big Bend down to Central Florida Wednesday morning.

The front is expected to fizzle out by Thursday morning as a second front tries to make its way from the Mid Atlantic to the Southeast. The second front may not get too far south, but the primary driver for the weather in the Big Bend and South Georgia will be what happens to the trough over the next few days.

The European and GFS models are in basic agreement of the upper-level trough to become a closed low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the end of the work week. This will set the stage for higher rain chances by the time we get to Friday and Saturday.

Both of the aforementioned models do diverge once we get into the weekend. The GFS doesn’t show the low as being as strong, while the European model keeps strong rain chances in the picture. With sufficient moisture expected to stick around, rain chances will still be elevated this weekend.

As of Wednesday afternoon, rain chances will be near 40 percent on Friday, increasing to 50% on Saturday, and 60 percent on Sunday. The high will be near 90 on Friday but drop to the upper 80s during the weekend.

Keep those umbrellas and raincoats around this weekend, and head indoors if thunder roars.