Better rain chances through early next week

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By: Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
June 5, 2019

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — After the dry pattern the Big Bend and South Georgia has dealt with since May, the area may see some relief with higher rain chances into early next week.

A weak ridge of high pressure was in place across Florida Wednesday morning, keeping the weather mostly calm and rain free. But, change is starting to take place with atmospheric moisture levels up in Tallahassee since Tuesday evening, with the average wind of the south in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

The increased moisture will slightly bump up rain chances for Wednesday as moisture continues to be fed in - especially from the broad low in the western Gulf of Mexico. The temperatures will still be hot as guidance is hinting at highs in the mid to upper 90s once again Wednesday afternoon.

The ridge across the Sunshine State is expected to flatten, making way for less sunshine and better rain chances in the area. A trough in the lower levels will move in from the west, funneling in more moisture from the Gulf and providing some lift to increase rain chances. Rain odds will spike starting Thursday and will be in the likely category (60% or greater) through early next week.

More moisture being added into our region.

The trough will slowly make its way through the Southeast, keeping the rain chances higher. The European and American GFS models are in good agreement of having the Big Bend and South Georgia on the backside of the trough by Tuesday, which would mean tempering of rain chances starting then.

Rainfall totals between Wednesday and next Tuesday morning of 2 to 4 inches are possible, with isolated higher amounts based on the global model runs and the Weather Prediction Center’s forecast. This amount of rainfall could place Apalachicola back into near-neutral year-to-date-rainfall territory, but Tallahassee would need to see more to get rid of the near 10-inch deficit so far this year. The rainfall would also ease concerns of the heightened wildfire risk.