Disturbance may bring higher rain chances

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By: Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
Sept. 12, 2019

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- An area of disturbed weather is over the southeastern Bahamas that will give us higher chances of rain this weekend into early next week - maybe.

The broad area of showers and storms, that the National Hurricane Center is giving an 80% chance of development over the next five days, is moving northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.

The NHC, noting a drop in barometric pressure in the region, may begin to issue Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories later on Thursday. These advisories give residents near the path a "heads-up" on what may be a fully-developed tropical cyclone.

Presentation on satellite imagery shows healthy thunderstorm development north of the southeastern Bahama islands with a somewhat reasonable outflow appearance to the north and east of the strongest convection. But the thunderstorm development doesn't appear organized as of Thursday morning.

Regardless of development, it's expected to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the Bahamas through the end of the week. Beyond that, it gets tricky.

The American GFS and European model runs differ on a path and, therefore, impacts. The European model and its ensemble members take the disturbance more rightward, keeping rainfall over the eastern half of Florida. The GFS takes the path more leftward into the Gulf of Mexico, increasing rain chances for the Big Bend and South Georgia.

It's important to note that model guidance early in the game can be unreliable and highly variable since a well-defined center has yet to develop. The lack of reconnaissance aircraft, surface, and upper-air data in and around the center is another problem that would lead to uncertainty in the track as well as impacts to any given area.

It's important to keep checking back over the next several days for the latest information.