High chance for tropical development in Gulf of Mexico, rain likely locally

By: Brittany Bedi | WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team
July 9, 2019

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a disturbance over North Florida and South Georgia.

As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the disturbance is located over the Big Bend, but is not tropical. It is forecast to push southward into the Gulf of Mexico. Once in the Gulf, there is a high chance of developing into a tropical depression, or possibly a tropical storm later on.

The 2 p.m. advisory from the NHC gives it a 70% chance of development in the next two days, and an 80% chance over the next five days. The chance of development in the next 48 hours was increased because the disturbance is closer to the Gulf of Mexico, where any development would occur.

Forecast models are in good agreement that if a depression develops, it will push westward towards Texas and Louisiana.

If a depression forms, it will be South of North Florida and South Georgia. This would funnel in moisture from the Gulf over inland and coastal areas, keeping rain chances elevated through Friday.

Regardless of whether the disturbance develops into a tropical depression or tropical storm, local impacts remain the same. Some more afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms are possible along with a few heavy downpours.

Since models are hinting at any tropical development occurring farther south into the Gulf of Mexico, possible rain totals have decreased. Around one to two inches of widespread rain is possible between Wednesday through Saturday morning, with some isolated higher amounts under any heavy downpours.

Any tropical development will not be a wind threat to our local area.

There is still some uncertainty further into the future for where exactly along the Texas or Louisiana coast that landfall would happen and how much development could happen by then.

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