High heat indices expected through the week
August 7, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — A pattern change will lead to more heat along with slightly lower rain chances through the end of the week.
At the surface, a weak center of high pressure was over the eastern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday morning, proving more of a westerly flow. Meanwhile, the eastern U.S. was under the influence of an upper-level trough, which has helped to keep rain chances a little higher the last few days.
Rain chances are still in the forecast for today, but only at 40% overall. Wednesday morning’s weather balloon launch from Tallahassee hinted at decent instability with a potential for a few storms to have gusty winds. Rain chances will be the highest in the Big Bend with the sea breeze and boundary interactions. Highs will be in the mid 90s in our inland locations.
The trough that’s over the eastern U.S. will begin to slide eastward, allowing for the upper-level ridge that was over Texas and New Mexico to slide eastward. This will set the stage for above-normal temperatures. With moisture still lingering in the lower levels, expect the heat index to reach the triple-digits during the day with the high in the mid to upper 90s. Rain chances will still be between 30% and 40%.
Those with outdoor plans should pace themselves. Drinking water and taking breaks in the shade and air-conditioning.
With the ridge drifting eastward, expect more of the same as Thursday. Rain chances will be near 40% with highs in the mid to upper 90s with the heat index into the 100s in many locations. The American GFS model is hinting at some energy riding along the side of the ridge, which might help keep showers and storms in the forecast.
Looking ahead, the ridge aloft continues to inch eastward. This will keep rain chances on the lower end, but the temperatures will likely hang around the mid 90s with heat indices above 100.