By: Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
August 2, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – With the start of August, the Atlantic hurricane season is showing some signs of life as meteorologists are watching an area of low pressure with potential development.
The National Hurricane Center was watching a tropical wave several hundred miles southeast of the Lesser Antilles with the potential for development as it moves west-northwestward. The thunderstorm activity appeared fairly anemic on satellite imagery as the low was surrounded by dry, dusty air from the Saharan Air Layer.
But the NHC is not ruling out development, saying in their Friday morning update that “some slow development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form well east of the Leeward Islands by early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.”
But there is the potential for increased wind shear hampering further development by the middle of next week as it approaches the Leeward Islands.
The global weather forecast models and their ensemble average runs are not hinting at much development. The European model’s probability of development of a tropical depression decreases by the middle of next week, but were at 50% to 60% through early next week. Tropical storm development is at 10% to 20% through the weekend, but drop to near zero afterward.
As of Friday morning, ensemble guidance keeps the low from the U.S. mainland as it turns north around a ridge of high pressure.
The Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the low.