Latest poll: Florida gov., senate races neck and neck

By: WCTV Eyewitness News
October 25, 2018

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- A recent survey of 800 likely voters in Florida shows that many of the races in the upcoming November election are still too close to call.

The survey, conducted for Gray Television by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, collected results from October 16 through 23.

The margin of error for the full sample is +/- 3.46%.

Here's a breakdown of the results:

Governor's Race

The state’s high-profile race for governor is within the margin of error, showing Republican Ron DeSantis leading Democrat Andrew Gillum 48% to 45%.

79% of DeSantis’ supporters say that their vote is decided, or that they probably won’t change their mind, compared with 87% of Gillum supporters.

Gillum is viewed favorably by 40% of likely voters and unfavorably by 35%, with 13% holding a neutral opinion and 11% still unfamiliar. DeSantis is viewed favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 39%, with 9% holding a neutral opinion and 10% unfamiliar.

Senate Race

Incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson leading Governor Rick Scott 46% to 45%.

At this late stage in the race, 89% of Nelson’s supporters say that their vote is decided, compared with 86% of Scott’s supporters.

Nelson is viewed favorably by 43% of likely voters and unfavorably by 41%, with 11% expressing a neutral opinion and 5% unfamiliar. Scott is viewed favorably by 45% of likely voters and unfavorably by 41%, with 11% expressing a neutral opinion and 4% unfamiliar.

Hurricane Michael Response

In the aftermath of Hurricane Michael, 64% of likely voters approve of how Governor Scott has responded to the disaster, with 18% disapproving.

Climate Change

When asked whether climate change has contributed to the severity of recent hurricanes impacting Florida, 55% agreed, 29% disagreed, and 16% were unsure.

Congressional Races

When asked about their vote for Congress, Florida voters continue to be closely divided along partisan lines. The Gray Television poll finds them preferring the generic Republican candidate over the generic Democratic candidate by a 42% to 41% margin, also within the poll’s margin of error.

President's Approval Rating

Overall, 53% of Florida voters approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, while 44% disapprove.

The poll was conducted by Strategic Research Associates, LLC, of Austin, Texas. A total of 800 likely voters were surveyed between October 16-23,2018. Determination of the likely voter sample was based on past vote history. Respondents were contacted by live interviewers, with 50% of calls completed on a landline telephone and 50% completed over a cellular telephone. Due to the catastrophic impact of Hurricane Michael, original field dates were delayed, and the sampling frame did not include respondents living in Washington, Bay, Calhoun, Gulf, Franklin, Liberty, Gadsen, and Wakulla Counties. This feature of data collection should be considered when interpreting the results. The final results are weighted based on analysis of the state voter file and exit polling data. The margin of error for the complete sample is +/3.46 percentage points, with higher margins of error for any sub-group.