Low pressure in Gulf not expected to strengthen

By: Brittany Bedi | WCTV Eyewitness News
May 15, 2018

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico continues to bring scattered showers through North Florida and South Georgia. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee analyzed the center of the low to be located a few hundred miles southwest of Apalachicola.

The low is not getting any better organized. The National Hurricane Center has given the low a 10% chance of tropical or subtropical development in the next two days. There is also only a 10% chance of development in the next five days.

As mentioned in several WCTV forecasts, the local effects of the system remain the same. Off-and-on showers continue through the rest of the week and into the weekend. Most showers will be light to moderate, however some pockets of heavy rain are possible.

Tuesday will be the day with the most widespread rain coverage. Rain chances will be at 70% on Tuesday and into Wednesday as well. Rain chances slightly decrease for the later portion of the work week.

More than an inch of rain has been recorded at Tallahassee International Airport between midnight and 10 AM on May 15.

While surrounding area rainfall totals are not as high, region-wide rain totals are expected to increase all week. An additional 2 to 5 inches of rain accumulation is possible throughout the Big Bend and South Georgia through Sunday, May 20. The low is expected to move inland and dissipate by Thursday, but an unstable pattern and abundant moisture will keep rain chances elevated well into next week.

Should I cancel my plans?
Well, it depends on what those plans are. The rain will not be constant. There could be some breaks between showers, but it will still be cloudy and muggy through Sunday. A few thunderstorms are possible and winds on the Gulf will be between 10 and 20 knots. It may not be ideal beach and boating weather.

When will the rain clear up?
So far, it looks like rain chances will stay in the 40% to 60% range through May 22. Like any other long-term forecast, that could change. The moisture-rich and unstable weather pattern will make it easy for showers to form.

Will this rain fix our drought?
Tallahassee is in a 2.81-inch rain deficit for the year, and 1.12-inch deficit for the month. Valdosta is in a 4.25-inch deficit for the year and a 0.71-inch deficit for the month. Apalachicola is in an 8.36-inch deficit for the year and a 0.70-inch deficit for the month. The rain could temporarily relieve the abnormally dry to slight drought situations in South Georgia and in Liberty and Franklin counties in Florida.

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