NHC: High chance of tropical depression formation in Gulf of Mexico

By: Brittany Bedi | WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team
July 8, 2019

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of a tropical depression or storm forming in the Gulf of Mexico.

As of 2 p.m. Monday, a trough of low pressure is located in Central Georgia. It is not tropical, but as it pushes south, it is forecast to linger in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Once it is in the Gulf, a broad area of low pressure could form.

The NHC is giving it an 80% chance of tropical development
Models are getting into better agreement that the area of low pressure will push westward through the Gulf of Mexico, possibly making landfall along the Louisiana or Texas coasts. The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor forecast models, as models can change over the next few days. There is still some uncertainty as to how much development is possible. A depression will likely form in the Gulf, and it could either make landfall as a depression or a tropical storm.

How will this affect North Florida and South Georgia?
The broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico, just to the south of the WCTV coverage area. This will keep plenty of moisture in place, with continued southerly flow. Expect more widespread rain from Wednesday through Saturday. Rain chances through the rest of the week will be in the 60% to 70% range.

Regardless of whether it develops into a tropical depression or storm, local impacts remain the same
Some heavy downpours are possible between Wednesday and Saturday. Rainfall accumulations of three to six inches are possible through Saturday. So far, this disturbance is not forecast to be a wind threat to North Florida and South Georgia. The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor conditions through the week.

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