Tropical disturbance in Southern Gulf of Mexico has 40% chance of development

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By: Brittany Bedi | WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team
June 4, 2019

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- The National Hurricane Center has adjusted the possibility of tropical development for a disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. The NHC is now giving the disturbance a 40% chance of tropical development. While the broad area of low pressure remains disorganized- even if it became a depression- impacts remain the same.

The disturbance will still slowly move northwest and mainly be a rainmaker for Eastern Mexico. After that, it could bring some tropical moisture to the Southeast U.S. Parter that moisture with an approaching front on Thursday, it could help increase rain chances by Friday.

By: Brittany Bedi | WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team
June 3, 2019

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- A disturbance in the Bay of Campeche is being monitored for tropical development. Satellite imagery of the disturbance shows a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms.

The National Hurricane Center has given the disturbance a 60% chance of development in the next two days and for the next five days. The disturbance is expected to continue on a northwest path towards eastern Mexico. Regardless of development, it will bring periods of heavy rain to Mexico. It is not a threat to North Florida and South Georgia.

Forecast models for the disturbance show a northwest path towards Mexico. Beyond that, there is a chance some of the tropical moisture could reach Texas, bringing rain by Thursday to that region. Parts of Louisiana could receive some rainfall by Friday. An upper level disturbance is forecast to move across Texas, possibly picking up some tropical moisture as it pushes eastward. This could help increase rain chances in North Florida and South Georgia on Friday and through the weekend. The increased rain chance could help limit daytime highs by Friday and to the weekend as well. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon.