Rain chances spike this weekend, early next week

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By: Charles Roop | WCTV Eyewitness News
February 8, 2018

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — The weather was pleasant Thursday with seasonable to above-average temperatures in our area, and a sunny sky. But it’s going to be nice beach weather for the weekend, right?


Mother Nature sure knows how to spoil things as the pattern will be changing starting Friday, and lasting through the middle of next week.

The front that passed us on Wednesday will begin to lift back northward starting Friday into Saturday. Meanwhile, the pattern aloft will add to the rain chances by bringing in more moisture and lifting mechanisms. “Pieces” of energy will move in on and off from Saturday through Tuesday. The subtropical jet stream will begin to enter the Southeast starting Sunday, transporting more moisture aloft.

The aforementioned elements will boost rain chances into likely categories starting Saturday.

  • Friday will be more cloudy as the moisture begins to move in aloft with a chance of a shower. The odds of rain will be near 30 percent with the highs ranging from the 60s along the coast to the 70s inland.

  • Saturday will be the day when the odds of rain will spike as the warm front lifts northward and the energy moves in. Rain chances will be near 50 percent with the high in the 70.

  • Sunday’s rain odds will spike again as the subtropical jet stream moves into the region, adding more moisture. An 80 percent chance of rain will be in order with the highs in the 70s once again. The precipitable water values will likely be well above average for this time of year, indicating a very moist atmospheric profile.

  • Monday and Tuesday’s forecast will mirror Sunday’s outlook. Sorry, guys.

  • Wednesday will be a day of transition as rain chances begin to drop to 30 percent. The energy subsides, deep moisture begins to throttle back, and the subtropical jet leaves us. Ridging will take over and begin to dry us out.

  • Rain chances will drop again Thursday to 20 percent. The high for both Wednesday and Thursday will approach 80 with the lows near 60, feeling more like spring.

    So far, the long-range models (notably the American GFS and European) are hinting at up to an inch of rain for the next five days with some locally higher amounts. The Weather Prediction Center is calling for around the same with the highest amounts to the west. Based on the setup and moisture availability, one to two inches of rain is possible between Friday and Wednesday. But the rain is a good thing as our area continues to be in drought conditions.

    Stay dry, my friends.