Rain is in the forecast this weekend

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By: Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
April 11, 2018

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — It was jacket weather across the area Wednesday morning with a clear sky, but the weather may not be this nice once we get late into the weekend. Guidance is in good agreement of a storm system moving into the eastern U.S. during that period.

High pressure was influencing the weather across the Southeast Wednesday morning, bringing in cooler, drier weather. But the high is expected to slide east in a quick fashion, bringing more of a southeasterly flow to the Big Bend and South Georgia starting Thursday. This switch in the surface flow will allow for a bit more warmth and moisture Thursday into Friday. The weather will be tranquil to end the work week, but the morning lows will increase from the 40s and 50s Wednesday morning to the upper 50s Friday. Saturday morning’s low will likely be near 60s. The high will be close to 80 Wednesday, but will warm into the mid 80s by Saturday.

Saturday will be muggy as dewpoints creep into the 60s. The sky will also likely be partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a shower.

Sunday will likely be an active weather day as a cold front makes its way eastward as low pressure moves from the Midwest into the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a deep upper-level trough will help provide some juice to the system, pumping in an abundant amount of moisture. The GFS is hinting at 1 to 2 inches of rain in some parts of our area, while the European model is not as aggressive (~1 inch).

There are some differences with the long-term guidance with the setup of the storm system, but one notable difference is timing. Like with the previous system that brought us rain and thunderstorms the previous weekend, the European model is a tad slower than the GFS. So far, this meteorologist will hold off on definite timing until it is closer to the weekend. But rain and a few thunderstorms can be expected on Sunday.

Based on some of the dynamics and deep moisture, there is a chance of seeing thunderstorms as the system rolls in. It’s too far out in time to confidently say there will be a risk for severe weather, but it’s important to seek shelter indoors when any thunderstorm approaches one’s area.

Model guidance may change and may tweak the forecast slightly, but confidence is high that rain will be in the forecast for Sunday.

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