‘Slight’ to ‘enhanced’ risk of severe weather early Friday

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By: Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
April 18, 2019 - 11:30 AM

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — There will be another chance of severe storms across the Big Bend and South Georgia early Friday morning through early afternoon.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our area under a slight (level 2 out of 5) to an enhanced risk (3 out of 5) Friday. Damaging winds will likely be the biggest threat, but a threat for a couple of tornadoes also exists. The enhanced risk is the highest added to our area by the SPC so far in 2019.

A cold front is expected to make its way through the Deep South Thursday into Friday with the surface low-pressure center moving northeasterly from Louisiana and Arkansas Thursday into New England Saturday. Aloft, a deep trough is expected to amplify the convection ahead of the front. With strong winds and diffluence aloft, a strong low-level jet, deep moisture, and some instability, these factors will increase the wind shear and dynamics, allowing for the potential of severe storms.

A limitation will be the timing and, therefore, the amount of instability available. For instance, a later arrival of the line of storms would mean more time for daytime heating that will give storms more energy. This is likely part of the reason why the enhanced risk has been added for the eastern two-thirds of the viewing area as well as parts of Georgia and the Florida peninsula.

This is subject to change, but the line of storms might enter our western areas (Blakely, Marianna, Mexico Beach) sometime between 4 a.m. and 7 a.m. EDT. The line would then progress eastward through the viewing area, entering locations such as Tallahassee, Thomasville, and Alligator Point between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m. The line would then exit our eastern areas - including Valdosta, Perry, and Live Oak - between 10 a.m. and 2 p.m.

Again, this timeline of arrival is subject to change; therefore, it’s important to keep monitoring updates form the Pinpoint Weather Team on-air and social media. Be sure to have a way to receive weather watches and warnings such as an NOAA Weather Radio and/or our WCTV Pinpoint Weather app.