Dorian makes landfall in North Carolina
September 6, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian made landfall Friday morning almost two weeks after being named a tropical storm.
Dorian was centered 5 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. with maximum sustained winds of 90 mph, according to the 9 a.m. ET update from the National Hurricane Center. The minimum central pressure was 956 millibars.
A Weatherflow station near Ocracoke, N.C. recorded a sustained wind speed of 73 mph with a gust of 89 mph, according to the 9 a.m. update.
It's expected to maintain a northeastward trek over the next few days, but it will continue to bring strong winds heavy rain to North Carolina and the Mid Atlantic along with storm surge on the coast.
September 6, 2019
WILMINGTON, N.C. (AP) -- The Latest on Hurricane Dorian (all times local):
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami is reporting hurricane-force wind gusts along the southern Outer Banks of North Carolina.
A weather station at Cape Lookout on the southern end of the chain of low-lying islands recently reported a 10-minute average wind of 63 mph (101 kph), equivalent to a 1-minute sustained wind speed of 69 mph (111 kph). A wind gust of 75 mph (121 kph) was also reported, but the weather station inside the western part of Dorian's eye hasn't reported data since 3 a.m.
Dorian's center is around 15 miles (24 kilometers) south of Cape Lookout, and around 80 miles (129 kilometers) southwest of Cape Hatteras, further north on the string of barrier islands and spits.
The Category 1 storm's top sustained winds remain at 90 mph (145 kph) and the storm is still moving northeast at 14 mph (22 kph).
September 5, 2019
OCRACOKE, N.C. (AP) — Forecasters say Hurricane Dorian is expected to slowly weaken as it travels near and along the coasts of South and North Carolina.
In its 5 p.m. advisory, the National Hurricane Center says Dorian has weakened slightly and remains a Category 2 storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph (169 kph).
Its eye is located about 45 miles (72 kilometers) southeast of Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, and is moving northeast at about 10 mph (16 kph).
Forecasters expect Dorian's eye to pass near or over parts of the North Carolina coast within the next 12 to 24 hours.
September 5, 2019
Dorian's maximum sustained winds have dropped slightly to 110 mph, making it once again a Category 2 hurricane.
That's still strong enough to cause damage along the coast of the Carolina's, where the storm is now close enough for hurricane-force winds to hit land.
Forecasters say Dorian's center at 11 a.m. EDT was about 50 miles (80 kilometers) east-southeast of Charleston, South Carolina, still moving north off the coast at about 8 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles.
The National Hurricane Center says large and destructive waves up to eight feet high could be seen in Myrtle Beach if peak surge happens during high tide.
September 5, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian's center of circulation was approaching the Carolina coastline as it spawned tornadoes north of the center Thursday morning.
As of 8 a.m. the center of Dorian was 70 miles south-southeast of Charleston, S.C. as it moved north-northeast at 8 mph according to the advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Maximum sustained winds were at 115 mph as the minimum central pressure was 959 millibars.
The storm regained some strength as it entered the Gulf Stream and upper-level flow helped ventilate the hurricane.
Hurricane-force winds extended out up to 60 miles from the center of the storm, according to the 8 a.m. advisory. A buoy located just north of the eye measured sustained winds of 60 mph and a wind gust of 76 mph, according to the NHC.
The threats from Dorian along the coastal Carolinas include heavy rain, hurricane-force winds, and storm surge up to 8 feet in some locations. There is also a threat for tornadoes along and just east of the Carolina coast. Tornado watched have been issued and there have been some reports of tornadoes Thursday morning.
September 4, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (AP) -- Hurricane Dorian strengthens back to a Category 3 hurricane as it batters the Southeast U.S. seaboard.
September 4, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian remains a category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. That speed is slightly stronger than the 2 PM advisory. It is moving north-northwest at 8 mph.
Dorian is looking a little better organized on satellite imagery. Heavy rain is wrapped around the eye of the storm. The eye of the storm is about 100 miles east-northeast of Jacksonville, Florida, and about 150 miles south of Charleston, South Carolina.
While Dorian is forecast to hold together as a category 2 hurricane, it will accelerate to the northeast. It could come dangerously close to the South Carolina and North Carolina coasts. Storm surge flooding is also possible along the Carolina coasts.
Winds will shift to be an offshore wind in Northeast Florida. This should limit any further flooding in those areas.
North Florida and South Georgia will remain dry overnight and into Thursday.
September 4, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- The center of Hurricane Dorian is 115 miles east of Jacksonville, Florida. As of the 2 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Dorian has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph with gusts up to 125 mph. The storm is moving north-northwest at 9 mph.
Hurricane-force winds from Dorian remain offshore, but wind gusts of 35 mph or greater have been reported across Northeast Florida.
September 4, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- Hurricane Dorian's center is located about 90 miles east-northeast of Daytona Beach, Florida. The category two hurricane has maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. Hurricane Hunter aircraft found hurricane-force winds 50 miles off the coast of Northeast Florida. It is moving to the north-northwest at 9 mph. This movement is almost parallel to the Florida coast, keeping the strongest winds offshore. Some wind gusts of 35 mph or greater have been recorded along the east coast of the state.
September 4, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — According to the National Hurricane Center's 8 a.m. advisory, Hurricane Dorian is moving north-northwestward at 8 miles per hour, parallel to the northeastern coast of Florida. A turn to the north is forecast for Wednesday evening, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Thursday morning.
On this track, Dorian will move dangerously close to the Florida east coast and the Georgia coast through tonight. The center of Dorian is forecast to move near or over the coast of South Carolina and North Carolina Thursday through Friday morning.
Its maximum sustained winds are at 105 miles per hour, and its about 95 miles away from Daytona Beach, Florida.
September 3, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian continues to churn east of Florida. As of the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds of 110 mph with gusts to 130 mph. Those strongest hurricane-force winds are closest to Dorian's center, which remains offshore.
Dorian is slowly moving to the northwest at 6 mph. That northwest motion is part of the turn that will happen Tuesday through Wednesday. A trough of low pressure will push Dorian north on Wednesday, then to the northeast by Wednesday and Thursday.
Local effects from Dorian will be minimal. Breezy conditions are possible in our eastern counties. A few gusts of 30 mph or greater are possible, but it will not be a constant wind. There is still a 5% to 10% chance of tropical storm-force wind gusts of 40 mph or greater. Tropical storm winds are more likely along the east coast of Florida.
Once Dorian reaches east of Jacksonville, circulation of winds around the storm will bring a northerly breeze to the Big Bend and South Georgia. This will lead to drier and hotter conditions by Thursday. High temperatures could reach well into the 90s Thursday and through the weekend.
September 3, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian continues to churn off the Florida coast. As of the 2 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center, Dorian is a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph. Dorian's center is located roughly 105 miles east of Fort Pierce, Florida. It is moving to the northwest at 5 mph, slowly pulling away from the Bahamas.
A trough of low pressure is pushing southeast into Central Florida. This trough is going to help push Dorian northwest, then northward through Wednesday. It will then accelerate the hurricane northeast by Thursday.
September 3, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — Hurricane Dorian was officially downgraded to a category 2 hurricane according to the National Hurricane Center's 11 a.m. advisory Tuesday. Its winds are gusting at 110 miles per hour, and the storm is moving in a northwest direction at two miles per hour.
As of this advisory, dangerous winds and life-threatening storm surge continues on Grand Bahama Island. NHC said life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected along parts of the Florida east coast and the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina, regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center.
Water levels could rise before strong winds arrive in those areas. Residents are urged to follow advice local emergency officials give.
The flash flood threat will increase during the day and through Tuesday night along the Florida peninsula, then spread up the southeast and mid-Atlantic coast during the rest of the week.
For more on this update, check out WCTV meteorologist Rob Nucatola's tropical chat.
September 3, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- Hurricane Dorian was officially downgraded to a category 3 hurricane in the 1 a.m. advisory Tuesday morning. The current sustained winds as of the 8 a.m. advisory are 120 mph with winds gusting to 150 mph.
In this latest advisory, Dorian began moving from a "stationary" position for the first time since Monday's 5 p.m. advisory. The current speed and direction is Northwest at 1 mph.
September 2, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- The 11PM update from the National Hurricane Center shows Hurricane Dorian remaining stationary over the Bahamas. Maximum sustained winds are at 130 mph with gusts up to 160 mph.
Dorian's center is located about 100 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Outer rain bands from the storm are starting to move onshore in South Florida.
Dorian is stationary, due to weak steering currents Monday night. It is forecast to begin moving northwest overnight or sometime Tuesday morning. A couple of factors play into the storm's steering. A ridge of high pressure to the northeast of Dorian will continue to weaken. A trough of low pressure is sweeping through the Southeast U.S. That trough is already moving through South Georgia and is forecast to reach Central Florida by Tuesday afternoon. That trough will help move Dorian north, and then northeast by Wednesday, causing the storm to move faster to the northeast.
Forecast models are in good agreement that Dorian's center will remain offshore from Florida.
September 2, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- The National Hurricane Center has issued their 5 p.m. advisory for hurricane Dorian. The wind speeds have not changed since the 4 p.m. advisory (145 mph), but the storm movement has become "stationary" 105 miles to the East of West Palm Beach, Florida.
The 5 p.m. update from NHC continues to show a weakening trend as the winds have slowed to 145.
Dorian is still forecast to push northward on Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure to the northeast of the storm weakens and moves eastward. Another ridge of high pressure is to the west, near the Great Plains. A trough of low pressure will push in from the west. This will help pick up a nearly stationary Dorian and push it northward, and then northeast as that trough pushes east. Dorian will pick up movement speed.
By Wednesday afternoon, Dorian will likely be offshore to the east of Jacksonville, Florida as a category 3 storm. Hurricane-force winds (75 mph or greater) extend out 45 miles from the center of the storm. If Dorian remains offshore as forecast, the threat of hurricane winds will not be an issue in the Big Bend and South Georgia. There is a 5% to 10% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force gusts (40 mph or greater) in the Big Bend and South Georgia. A gust of 30 mph may be possible Wednesday, but it will not be a high wind threat locally.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — The 2 p.m. update from the National Hurricane Center shows a slow weakening trend in Dorian as it is essentially parked over the Bahamas Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are down to 150 mph, with wind gusts up to 190 mph. For reference, Sunday's 2 p.m. advisory said the maximum sustained winds were clocking in at 185 mph and gusts of 220 mph.
Weakening or not, Dorian continues to be an extremely dangerous storm, but risks for the Big Bend and South Georgia remain low.
According to the latest forecast track, Dorian continues to stay on a course toward the west-northwest, and could skirt the Atlantic coast of Florida. After this, Dorian is forecast to continue to weaken as it rides along or close to the Georgia and South Carolina coast.
Below is a video posted to YouTube from the National Hurricane Center of one of their hurricane hunter airplanes flying through the eye of Hurricane Dorian.
September 2, 2019 - 11:25 AM
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian's maximum sustained winds have decreased, but remained a powerful hurricane as it moved slowly over the Bahamas Monday morning.
The winds have dropped to 155 mph according to the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The minimum central pressure has increased to 922 millibars as it slowly moved slightly north of west at 1 mph.
It slowed down dramatically after making landfall near Marsh Harbour in the Bahamas Sunday. But a slow turn to the northwest is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning. It is then forecast to parallel the coastline Tuesday into Wednesday and accelerate north and northeastward through Friday as it reaches close to the Carolinas.
Most of Florida’s east coast remained in the cone of uncertainty Monday morning. Hurricane warnings were moved northward to the Flagler/Volusia County line according to the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Infrared satellite imagery continued to show warmer cloud tops Monday morning, hinting at some weakening of the storm as the storm continued to stir up the water beneath it. The hurricane’s eye still remained well defined as the southern edge of it nearly sat over Grand Bahama. As it moves northward during the next few days, gradual weakening is expected as it enter more wind shear.
McLEAN'S TOWN CAY, Bahamas (AP) -- The Latest on Hurricane Dorian (all times local):
MIAMI (AP) -- Weather forecasters say Hurricane Dorian's winds have decreased slightly, now a powerful Category 4 storm.
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale:
CAT 1: Winds of 74-95 MPH
CAT 2: Winds of 96-110 MPH
CAT 3 (major): Winds of 111-129
CAT 4 (major): Winds of 130-156
CAT 5 (major): Winds of 157 mph or higher
Weather forecasters say Hurricane Dorian's wind strength has dropped slightly Monday, though it continues to pummel the Bahamas with destructive wind and rain.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said at 10 a.m. EDT that the maximum sustained wind speed was most recently clocked at 160 mph (260 kph), down from 165 mph.
Still, Dorian remained an extremely dangerous, life-threatening Category 5 storm, the center said.
The storm was crawling slowly west at 1 mph (2 kph), with its center 30 miles (50 kilometers) east-northeast of Freeport, Grand Bahama Island and 115 miles (185 kilometers) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.
September 2, 2019 - 8:15 AM
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian continues to batter the Bahamas as it crawls westward Monday morning.
The 8 a.m. advisory had the center of Dorian 35 miles from Freeport in Grand Bahama, moving due-west at 1 mph. The maximum sustained winds remained at 165 mph with a minimum central pressure of 916 millibars.
The eye of the storm was over central Grand Bahama Monday morning, not moving too much since Sunday. It made landfall east of Marsh Harbour Sunday, but the eastern side of Dorian remained over the area Monday morning.
Satellite imagery continued to show an impressive structure with the hurricane, but the cloud tops appear warmer compared to earlier images. This might be a sign of some weakening, but Hurricane Hunter data would be helpful with determining the current strength of the storm.
Hurricane warning remain in effect from Jupiter Inlet to the Volusia/Brevard County line. A hurricane watch is in effect from north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet and from the Volusia/Brevard County line northward to the mouth of the St. Mary's River. Those under hurricane warning should have their hurricane preps complete.
Dorian has slowed down since Sunday, giving a signal that it may turn north in the near term. The official forecast turning more northwestward Monday night into Tuesday morning. The ridge is expected to strengthen to the east of the storm along with a trough of low pressure setting up in New England. These two features are expected to push and pull Dorian northward Tuesday and Wednesday and turning more northeastward Wednesday night and Thursday.
Gradual weakening of the winds is forecast as Dorian is expected to encounter wind shear as it moves northward. But those along Florida's east coast will likely still feel impacts from the storm such as winds up to hurricane force along with storm surge and heavy rain. Storm surge up to 7 feet is probable for some areas along Florida's east coast.
September 1, 2019 - 11:00PM
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- The National Hurricane Center released the 11PM update on Hurricane Dorian. Maximum sustained winds are at 180 mph with gusts of 220 mph. Dorian is still slowly moving westward at 6 mph as steering currents for it are weakening. Dorian is still forecast to make a northward turn sometime Monday evening or early Tuesday as a ridge of high pressure to the north weakens and shifts eastward. A trough of low pressure will sweep in from the northwest that could steer Dorian northeast by Wednesday. The storm will also encounter higher wind shear by Wednesday as it moves closer to the Georgia and Carolina coasts.
Dorian's center and strongest winds could get close to the Florida Atlantic coast. Hurricane-force winds extend up to 45 miles away from Dorian's center. Any jogs westward in the forecast would lead to higher winds along the Florida coast. Tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or greater extend up to 140 miles from Dorian's center.
Will Dorian impact the Big Bend and Southwest and South-Central Georgia? So far, local impacts will be minimal. Dorian's center is currently forecast likely remain offshore. This means the high wind gusts, rip currents, and beach erosion will be the impacts close to the coast. In the Big Bend and South Georgia, some occasional gusts of possibly 30 mph or more are possible, but it will not be a constant high wind.
According to the most recent forecasts, by the time Dorian moves as north to our latitude, circulation around the storm could bring in winds from the northeast, providing drier conditions by mid-week. It's something to continue to monitor.
Bottom line, areas along the Atlantic coast need to closely monitor Dorian's progress, prepare, and obey official evacuation orders. The Big Bend and South Georgia will likely not see much rain accumulation from Dorian, nor much of a wind threat.
The next updates from the NHC will be at 2 AM, 5 AM, and 11 AM Monday morning.
September 1, 2019 - 8:00PM
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- The National Hurricane Center released the 8 PM update on hurricane Dorian. Maximum sustained winds are still at 185 mph with gusts up to 225mph. Dorian is still moving slowly westward at 5 mph.
Hurricane warnings have been issued along the Atlantic coast of central and south Florida.
A weakness in a ridge of high pressure to the north and a trough of low pressure expected to push in from the west will help steer Dorian northward sometime Monday into early Tuesday. Doring will continue northward as a powerful hurricane before encountering higher wind shear closer to Georgia, causing it to weaken before approaching the Carolina coast.
As far as local impacts go, Dorian's strongest winds extend 30 miles from its center. The image below shows the probability of experiencing tropical storm-force winds (39+ mph.) If Dorian's center remains offshore as forecast, wind impacts will be minimal across the Big Bend and South Georgia. A few wind gusts fo 30+ mph are possible on Wednesday as Dorian pushes northward. However, widespread high winds are not anticipated at this time. Hurricane-force winds (75+ mph) are forecast to remain well east of the WCTV area.
The timing of Dorian's turn makes all the difference in terms of local impacts.
The next advisory from the NHC will be released at 11PM.
Sept. 1, 2019 - 5:00PM
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- Hurricane Dorian remains a strong category 5 hurricane. As of the 5PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center, maximum sustained winds are at 185 mph with higher gusts. Dorian's center is located about 175 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Dorian has slowed down, moving west at 5 mph.
Most of the 5PM NHC forecast cone continues to show a mostly offshore forecast. There is still a possibility of landfall on the east coast of Florida.n It will be a very close call along the Atlantic coast. Because of that, hurricane warnings are being issued along the Atlantic coast near West Palm Beach.
A trough of low pressure dipping through the Southeastern U.S. and a weakening in a ridge of high pressure to the northeast should steer the storm northward. Exact timing of the turn is still uncertain. Any small changes in the next 24 hours could greatly change the forecast.
For now, areas along the east coast need to remain vigilant with preparations and follow any evacuation orders. For the Big Bend and South Georgia, impacts from Dorian are expected to be minimal.
Dorian is forecast to be located east of Jacksonville on Wednesday morning. The local North Florida and South Georgia area have a 10% to 20% chance of experiencing some occasional wind gusts of 39 mph or greater. The probability of high winds increases closer to the east coast. Otherwise, circulation from Dorian from the northeast could lead to drier and hotter conditions by Wednesday and Thursday.
The next update will be released at 11PM.
Sept. 1, 2019 - 2:15 PM
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – Hurricane Dorian made landfall Sunday afternoon as a powerful hurricane with maximum sustained winds 185 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The 2 p.m. advisory had the storm over Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas, or 185 miles east of West Palm Beach. It's moving nearly due west 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds remained at 185 mph with gusts over 200 mph. A minumum central pressure of 911 millibars was recorded by NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft.
The projected path remains the same as the 11 a.m. advisory. The storm is projected to slow down and move northeasterly by Tuesday morning, then move north close to Florida's east coast as a major hurricane. Some weakening of the wind strength is forecast as Dorian is expected to run into mid-level wind shear by mid week. But coastal impacts are likely such as strong winds and storm surge.
MIAMI (AP) -- The Latest on Hurricane Dorian (all times local):
Extremely powerful, life-threatening Hurricane Dorian has reached the Bahamas. The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Sunday that Dorian made landfall in Elbow Cay at 12:40 p.m. EDT.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to a monstrous 185 mph (295 kph) from 180 mph (285 kph).
Sept. 1, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) – Hurricane Dorian was getting close to the Bahamas Sunday morning as it crossed the threshold of category-5 status.
Maximum sustained winds as of the 11 a.m. advisory were at 180 mph as it moved due-west at a slightly-slower 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 913 millibars – lower than Hurricane Michael’s landfall central pressure of 919 millibars.
The National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory at 9:30 a.m. making note of the stronger winds found by Hurricane Hunters along with a strongly-worded scenario for the Bahamas. They noted for the potential of wind gusts over 200 mph and storm surge of 15 to 20 mph with higher waves in the Abaco Islands.
“These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas and will continue for several hours,” the NHC wrote in the 9:30 a.m. update.
Dorian is also the strongest hurricane in modern records for the northwestern Bahamas, according to the NHC’s 11 a.m. discussion.
The hurricane made its first landfall at Elbow Cay, Abaco in the Bahamas at 12:40 p.m.
Sept. 1, 2019
MIAMI (AP) -- The Latest on Hurricane Dorian (all times local):
A coastal Florida county is ordering an evacuation of barrier islands, mobile homes and areas that are prone to flood because of Hurricane Dorian.
Palm Beach County issued the evacuation order beginning 1 p.m. Sunday after the county that includes West Palm Beach was placed under a tropical storm warning.
The official forecast path for Dorian curves the storm away from the area before it strikes land.
But the National Hurricane center says there are variables that could alter that path, and there is about a 50% chance West Palm Beach will get hurricane winds by early Wednesday.
Potentially devastating winds from Hurricane Dorian have strengthened yet again as the storm nears the Bahamas.
The National Hurricane Center in Miami said Sunday that maximum sustained winds have increased to 175 mph (280 kph) from 160 mph (260 kph) as it approaches Great Abaco Island. It is moving west at 8 mph (13 kph).
The center said at 9:30 a.m. EDT that the Category 5 storm is 25 miles (40 kilometers) east-northeast of Great Abaco Island and about 210 miles (340 kilometers) east of West Palm Beach, Florida.
The Hurricane Center is warning of potentially devastating wind gusts of more than 200 mph (321 kph) and destructive waves of up to 20 feet (6 meters).
"These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas," the center said, "and will continue for several hours."
Weather forecasters say predictions that powerful Hurricane Dorian will slow to a crawl over the Bahamas complicates their outlook for the United States.
The National Hurricane Center says Dorian could nearly stall over Great Abaco Island or Grand Bahama Island for more than 24 hours starting late Sunday.
Hurricane Center Director Ken Graham says that would be catastrophic for the island chain. Dorian was upgraded to the most powerful designation of Category 5, with maximum sustained winds increasing to 160 mph (260 kph). Forecasters say ocean levels could rise up to 20 feet (6 meters) in parts of the northern Bahamas with the storm surge topped with huge waves.
Graham says the storm stalling also complicates the U.S. forecast. The time allows small changes in the winds that steer the storm, which means Dorian can still make landfall anywhere from Florida to North Carolina during the next five days.
August 31, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The 11 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center has the same stats from 8 PM. Maximum sustained winds remain at 150 mph with gusts of 180 mph. Dorian is still moving westward at 8 mph.
Dorian's center is located about 310 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Forecast models are still trending to keep Dorian's center off the east coast of Florida, but any small changes in the forecast path in the next 48 hours could lead to much larger changes three to five days out.
If the forecast trend continues, there is a very low chance of tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph across local counties in North Florida or South Georgia.
August 31, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The 8 PM advisory from the National Hurricane Center shows maximum sustained winds of 150 mph with gusts up to 185 mph. Dorian's center is located roughly 335 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. The storm is moving west at 8 mph.
There hasn't been any change to the forecast cone since the 5 PM advisory. Dorian is forecast to make a northward turn sometime Monday as a ridge of high pressure to the north weakens. The timing of this turn determines the extent of impacts Florida.
Forecast models are still mainly trending to keep Dorian over the Atlantic, but skirting close to the Florida Peninsula on Monday and Tuesday. Models could still shift west and east each run, so any continued eastward trend would decrease the chance of high winds along the east coast.
It is still too early to pin down local impacts for the North Florida and South Georgia counties. It would highly depend on when Dorian makes a northward turn. As of Saturday night, Dorian's path will likely be east of the WCTV coverage area. Circulation around that hurricane could possibly pull in drier air to the region by Wednesday. Rain totals are forecast to be highest close to the east coast of Florida. So far, estimates of 4 to 8 inches of rain are possible on the east coast of Florida, with isolated areas receiving 12 inches of rain.
Continue to monitor the forecast as Dorian nears the Florida coast.
August 31, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian remains a category 4 hurricane. As of the 5PM NHC advisory, Dorian is located about 355 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are at 150 mph. The storm is slowly pushing westward at 8 mph.
The NHC forecasts Dorian to take a northward turn sometime Monday. There's still some uncertainty as to when exactly the turn will happen. Long-range forecast models are trending eastward. There is also some uncertainty if landfall would happen in Florida or if it will stay off the coast and remain a major hurricane. Since the cone of error has shifted eastward, the possibility of winds of 39+ mph has decreased for the local North Florida and South Georgia area. Locations along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas should remain vigilant and prepare.
The next forecast advisory on Dorian will be released around 8 PM.
August 31, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian was still strengthening as it moved westward toward the Bahamas Saturday.
The 2 p.m. advisory had the storm 385 miles east of West Palm Beach, Fla. as it moved nearly west at 8 mph, a slower forward speed compared to previous advisories.
Maximum sustained winds were 150 mph with a minimum central pressure of 945 millibars. Dorian continued to look impressive on satellite imagery.
With the cone of error shifting eastward, this lowers the odds for impacts in the Big Bend and South Georgia. This change was brought by guidance models continued easterly shift in the track since Friday. The bulk of guidance runs have the storm moving farther away from Florida's east coast. BUT, it's important to state that even if Dorian stays offshore, there is still the potential for impacts along Florida's east coast such as storm surge, heavy rain and strong winds.
As of 11 a.m. Saturday, no hurricane advisories have been issued for the U.S. mainland.
Stay tuned for the latest information.
August 30, 2019 - 8:30 p.m.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Forecasters say Dorian has become an "extremely dangerous" Category 4 hurricane.
The U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami says Dorian gained new strength in recent hours and now has maximum sustained winds near 130 mph (215 kph).
It says in an updated statement at 8:30 p.m. EDT Friday that hurricane hunter aircraft detected the change in strength recently.
The storm is centered about 400 miles (645 kilometers) east of the northwestern Bahamas.
Hurricane Dorian continued to march west-northwestward towards the east coast as a major hurricane Friday evening.
Hurricane Dorian was 595 miles to the east of West Palm Beach, according to the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Maximum sustained winds remained at 115 mph with hurricane-force winds extended out to 30 miles from the center of the storm. Tropical-storm-force winds extended out to 115 miles from the center.
Hurricane warnings were issued for the northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island, according to the advisory. A hurricane watch was issued for Andros island. A watch means conditions are possible within 48 hours while a warning means conditions are anticipated within 36 hours. Those in a warning should have their preparations complete.
The minimum central pressure remained at 970 millibars.
The cone of uncertainty has shifted right compared to previous advisories. Some guidance runs have shifted the track more eastward, but inconsistencies in location and timing remain. Those uncertainties are making the forecast difficult once it gets near the Florida coastline. Because of this, impacts (if any) are uncertain for the Big Bend and South Georgia.
Stay tuned for the latest.
August 30, 2019 - 11 AM
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Reconnaissance aircraft found maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, making Dorian a category 3 hurricane, according to an advisory Friday afternoon.
Hurricane Dorian was 625 miles east of West Palm Beach, according to the 2 p.m. intermediate advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The storm was moving northwest at 10 mph with a minimum central pressure of 970 millibars.
The hurricane continues to look impressive on satellite imagery, showing any eye in the center of the storm.
A hurricane watch remains in place for the northwestern Bahamas.
The three-day cone still has the storm impacting southern Florida, but the cone of error widens out for Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving exact impacts for locations uncertain.
August 30, 2019 - 11 AM
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian remained at category-2 status Friday morning as satellite imagery showed an eye.
The maximum sustained winds were still at 110 mph with hurricane winds extending out to 25 miles from the center, according to the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend out to 105 miles from the center of Dorian. The official forecast has the storm becoming a major hurricane as it approaches the Florida coast.
Dorian was moving northwest at 10 mph - a little slower than previous advisories. It's expected to make a more of a westerly motion starting tonight. This places the edge of three-day cone of uncertainty over Florida's southeast coast.
The jury is out with days 4 and 5 as the storm slows down and may curve northward. The question is where it will make that northerly turn. It's location of the turn (along the coast or inland) will impact the strength and impacts for a given location.
Stay tuned for updates.
August 30, 2019
According to the National Hurricane Center's Friday 8 a.m. advisory, Hurricane Dorian is expected to strengthen from a Category 2 storm into a potentially catastrophic Category 4 with winds of nearly 140 mph (225 kph) and hit the U.S. on Monday somewhere between the Florida Keys and southern Georgia — a 500-mile (805-kilometer) stretch that reflected the high degree of uncertainty this far out.
With the storm's track still unclear, no immediate mass evacuations were ordered. Along Florida's east coast, local governments began distributing sandbags, shoppers rushed to stock up on food, plywood and other emergency supplies at supermarkets and hardware stores, and motorists topped off their tanks and filled gasoline cans. Some fuel shortages were reported in the Cape Canaveral area.
As of 8 a.m. EDT Friday morning, Dorian was centered about 255 miles (410 kilometers) east-northeast of the southeastern Bahamas. Its maximum sustained winds had increased slightly to 110 mph (175 kph) and the storm was moving northwest at 12 mph (19 kph). Additional strengthening was forecast and the National Hurricane Center said Dorian was expected to become a major hurricane later in the day.
The government of the Bahamas issued a hurricane watch for the northwestern Bahamas overnight. According to the advisory, a watch is usually issued 48 hours before tropical-storm-force winds are anticipated.
The National Hurricane Center's projected track had the storm blowing ashore midway along the Florida peninsula, southeast of Orlando and well north of Miami or Fort Lauderdale. But because of the difficulty of predicting its course this far ahead, the "cone of uncertainty" covered nearly the entire state.
Forecasters said coastal areas of the Southeast could get 5 to 10 inches (13 to 25 centimeters) of rain, with 15 inches (38 centimeters) in some places, triggering life-threatening flash floods.
August 29, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The National Hurricane Center is saying Hurricane warnings could be issued on Friday. Residents should have hurricane plans in place and pay attention to advisories.
NHC is also saying there's increasingly likelihood of massive storm surges late into the weekend and early into next week. Officials are saying it's too early to determine where the strongest winds and storm surges will occur.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Dorian was still a weak hurricane as it moved northwestward Thursday evening, but Florida and Georgia remain in the cone of uncertainty.
Maximum sustained winds remained at 85 mph with a minimum central pressure of 986 millibars, according to the 5 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center.
Not much has changed with the official forecast since the 11 a.m. advisory as guidance models remain, well, scattered. The latest Euopean run has the storm slowing down and climbing along the Florida coast as the model weakens and restrengthens the ridge of high pressure. The high will likely be a major steering mechanism for Dorian. But how strong the high will be and where it will be determine the path of Dorian and the impacts for the Big Bend and South Georgia, if any.
The official forecast still calls for a major hurricane as it approaches the coastline. The environment is expected to be favorable for further development as wind shear and dry air are expected to be less of a problem for the hurricane.
We will continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.
August 29, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane Dorian continues to slowly strengthen and become better organized Thursday morning.
The maximum sustained winds remained at 85 mph with a minimum central pressure that continues to fall based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft, according to the 11 a.m. ET advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The storm was moving northwesterly at 13 mph.
The official forecast path has the storm moving northwestward through Friday or Saturday, then turn more westward. Dorian has the potential to strengthen further and possibly become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph - making a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale - according to the advisory. Potential landfall on the southeast U.S. coast could be Monday or Tuesday.
The cone of uncertainty has widened since the 5 a.m. advisory, extending from near Miami north to near Savannah, Ga. The latest guidance has become more spread since Wednesday, making the long-term forecast a bit more uncertain.
With Dorian's size and wind field not being very large, the exact location of landfall (or near landfall) would determine impacts of certain locations.
Stay tuned for the latest information.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- According to the National Hurricane Center's 5 a.m. Advisory on Thursday, Hurricane Dorian's winds were at 85 miles per hour. Meteorologist Rob Nucatola said on his Tropical Thoughts Blog that the pressure and motion were similar to the NHC's last report Wednesday night.
NHC says Florida's easy coast is at risk of dangerous storm surge and hurricane-force winds later this week and into the weekend. But, it is too early to tell where that severe weather will hit exactly.
Heavy rains are expected in Florida and elsewhere in the southeastern U.S. through the weekend and early next week.
Read Nucatola's full blog below, and
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The 5 p.m. Advisory was released by the National Hurricane Center. Hurricane Dorian has winds of 80 mph. It is about 45 miles northwest of St. Thomas. Dorian continues to push northwest at 14 mph.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- The National Hurricane Center released the 2 PM advisory on Dorian. The storm has strengthened to a category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. As of 2PM, Dorian's center is located over St. Thomas.
Hurricane Hunters are reporting multiple observations of hurricane-force winds in St. Thomas.
The overall forecast cone remains unchanged from the 11 AM advisory. It is forecast to continue to strengthen over the weekend, possibly to a major hurricane by Sunday. It is still too early to determine specific impacts to North Florida and South Georgia. At this time, the forecast cone has a 200 mile wide margin of error. This means landfall is possible anywhere along the Atlantic coast of Florida to the southern edge of South Carolina.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- The National Hurricane Center released the 11 AM update for Tropical Storm Dorian. Dorian is located about 25 miles southeast of St. Croix with maximum sustained winds at 70 mph. The storm is forecast to become a hurricane soon. Hurricane warnings have been issued for the U.S. Virgin Islands, Vieques, and Culebra. A hurricane watch is in effect for Puerto Rico, with tropical storm warnings still in place for the island.
The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team released a Facebook Live video update on Dorian.
The 11AM forecast cone shows a shift northward, taking Dorian north of the Bahamas. It is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane (category three) by Sunday morning. As of the 11AM NHC forecast, landfall county happen on Labor Day as a category three hurricane somewhere along the southeastern coast of the U.S.
A ridge of high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean could partially steer Dorian. Any weakening in that ridge could shift the forecast cone northward. It's important to note that there's still plenty of uncertainty beyond three days out from Wednesday. It is too early to directly pinpoint any effects to the local North Florida and South Georgia area at this time. The forecast cone/cone of uncertainty still spans from South Florida to the South Carolina coast.
August 28, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — The National Hurricane Center's projections as of 5 a.m. Wednesday say Tropical Storm Dorian may reach category 2 hurricane strength and it could hit Florida's Atlantic coast.
However, NHC says there's a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast later in the week because of a large spread in the models.
Meteorologist Rob Nucatola's explored why there's so much uncertainty with Dorian in his Tropical Thoughts blog from Wednesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions, like heavy rain and flash flooding, are expected in the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Wednesday, and are possible in parts of the Dominican Republic tonight and Thursday.
Heavy rains are expected to hit parts of the Bahamas and Florida later this week and into early next week.
The threat of tropical storm or hurricane conditions, along with storm surge, in portions of Florida's east coast have increased.
August 27, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Tropical Storm Dorian continues to push west-northwest through the Caribbean Sea. As of the 5 p.m. Tuesday advisory from the NHC, the center of the storm was located 80 miles west of Dominica, and about 330 miles southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico. Maximum sustained winds are still at 50 mph as it moves to the west-northwest at 13 mph.
Tropical storm warnings are in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
The projected path has shifted slightly farther east, hinting at a possible direct impact to Puerto Rico. The storm's interaction with land could lead to a bit of weakening by Thursday, possibly staying just east of the island of Hispaniola.
Beyond Hispaniola, there's still lots of uncertainty as to how much strengthening will happen. The WCTV Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor it since it's forecast to approach somewhere along the east coast of Florida late Saturday or early Sunday.
If Dorian manages to hold together and approaches Florida, it would still weaken as it moves east or northeast across the state. For now, it could be a rainmaker for Florida this weekend and Monday.
August 27, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- Tropical Storm Dorian continues to churn over warm waters as it enters the Caribbean sea. As of the 2 p.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center, Dorian is located 70 miles west-northwest of Martinique. Hurricane Hunters aircraft found that Dorian's center reformed a little farther north. Maximum sustained winds are still at 50 mph. It is forecast to continue west-northwest at 13 mph.
Dorian will gradually strengthen over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, but it will be battling wind shear and dry air between Tuesday and Thursday. Dorian's center of circulation could approach Puerto Rico and the island of Hispaniola Wednesday night into early Thursday morning as a tropical storm.
August 27, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — Tropical Storm Dorian may become a hurricane before impacting the Dominican Republic and Puerto Rico on Wednesday night and Thursday, the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning.
NHC projects Dorian will stay on a path that could threaten Florida's Atlantic coast this weekend. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into the weekend for Florida, the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos is increasing.
Heavy rainfall over parts of Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic and the Lesser Antilles could produce flash flooding during the next few days, according to the NHC.
NHC said the uncertainty in the forecast is higher than usual because of potential land interaction with Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.
Tropical Storm Dorian is expected to bring high winds and heavy rain to Caribbean Islands under tropical storm watches and warning Monday night and Tuesday,
NHC also said Dorian is expected to become a hurricane before it hits the Caribbean Islands, however, any potential impacts from Dorian in the Bahamas and Florida later this week are highly uncertain.
This is because Hispaniola's high terrain may tear apart the storm, NHC said.
A hurricane watch has been issued for St. Lucia. Puerto Rico and Hispaniola have increased risk of wind and rainfall.
As of 6 a.m. Monday, Tropical Storm Dorian has 60 miles per hour sustained winds near its center, the NHC.
Those tropical storm force winds only extend 45 miles from the center, which is a pretty small system at this point, NHC said. Based on satellite imagery, it appears the storm will get stronger over the next couple of days, NHC said.
NHC said Dorian may move across the Windward Islands and into the Caribbean Sea and keep getting stronger, reaching peak intensity around Thursday near Puerto Rico or Hispaniola.
The storm's movement through the islands will have a lot to say about its future strength, NHC said. If it stay over land, especially over Hispaniola's mountains, it would get weaker.
For more updates on Tropical Storm Dorian, check out
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August 25, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Tropical Storm Dorian continued its westward trek Sunday morning.
The 11 a.m. advisory had the storm 465 miles east-southeast of Barbados with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
The wind shear it has been encountering is expected to weaken over time as dry air surrounds the storm. The NHC's official forecast has a slow strengthening in the near term to possibly a weak hurricane as it enters the Caribbean Sea, but it's placement in the Caribbean islands may be another factor in it's strength.
Interactions with the islands may disrupt its structure, weakening the storm. But if it stays north or south of the islands, as long as shear is weak and dry air isn't an issue, it could at least maintain its strength. Because of these variables, it's tough to give definitive answers on its potential strength after Dorian crosses the Windward Islands.
The Pinpoint Weather Team will continue to monitor the progress of the storm.
August 24, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV)-- The National Hurricane Center has upgraded tropical depression 5 to Tropical Storm Dorian.
As of the 5 PM advisory, Dorian is located in the open Atlantic, and gaining slightly better organization on satellite imagery. It has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
August 24, 2019
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) — A tropical wave that has been watched for the last few days was classified as a tropical depression Saturday morning with its eye on the Caribbean.
Tropical Depression Five was 805 miles east-southeast of Barbados according to the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. Estimated maximum sustained winds were at 35 mph as it moved westward at 12 mph.