Arthur no longer a tropical system

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By: Charles Roop | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
May 19, 2020

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The last advisory on Arthur was issued Tuesday morning as the storm transitioned into a extratropical system.

The center of circulation was 400 miles east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, N.C. according to the 11 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The remnant low was moving east at 15 mph.

A warm front was interacting with the low, moving northeast from the center of circulation according to the NHC's Tuesday morning discussion. A tropical cyclone contains no fronts and is a warm core system; therefore, it can't hold the classification of a tropical system.

The storm is expected to remain a remnant low as it moves east to south toward Bermuda.

By: Hannah Messier | WCTV Pinpoint Weather
May 17, 2020

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The first Tropical Storm of the 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Tropical Storm Arthur, continues to travel through the Atlantic. At 8:00 PM Arthur was 260 miles SSW of Cape Hatteras North Carolina and moving to the NNE at 9 mph with sustained winds speeds of 45 mph and a pressure of 1004 mb.

Arthur brought rain to the Carolinas on Sunday evening and is forecasted to continue to move towards the North Carolina coast on Monday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for parts of the North Carolina coast Sunday night through Monday. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots with wind gusts up to 55 knots are expected in North Carolina's costal waters.

On Tuesday, upper level winds will propel Arthur to the east, out into the Atlantic where it is expected to weaken, becoming a post tropical cyclone.

By: Hannah Messier | WCTV Weather
May 17, 2020 - 10:30 a.m.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- As of 8:00 am, the first tropical storm of the 2020 hurricane season, Tropical Storm Arthur was 355 miles south south west of Cape Hatteras with a pressure of 1002 mb and sustained wind speeds of 40 mph.

Arthur is forecasted to move along the southeast coast of the United States, impacting parts of North Carolina's coast where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for late Sunday night and into Monday afternoon. As the storm approaches the coast, wind gusts up to 55 knots and sustained winds of 30 to 40 knots are possible on the water.

Differing wind speeds at different levels in the atmosphere over the Atlantic will help weaken Arthur, and therefore the Tropical Storm isn't forecasted to get much stronger in the coming days.

By mid week, upper level winds are expected to maneuver Arthur away from the coast and out into the Atlantic Ocean.

By: Hannah Messier | WCTV Weather
May 17, 2020 - 12:00 a.m.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida upgraded Tropical Depression One to Tropical Storm Arthur at 11:00 PM Saturday Night. A Hurricane Hunter Aircraft estimated 40 mph winds speeds at the surface, confirming that the low pressure system had strengthened into a Tropical Storm. As of 11:00 PM, the system was 190 miles east northeast of Cape Canaveral Florida.

Earlier this afternoon the storm brought showers to the Florida Peninsula. Scattered showers on the fringes of the storm reached Dixie county bringing 0.13 inches of rain to Cross City.

The storm is forecasted to move off to the northeast, not impacting the Big Bend and South Georgia. However, a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued on Monday for parts of North Carolina's coast.

By: Hannah Messier | WCTV Weather
May 16, 2020 - 8:30 p.m.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida upgraded the low pressure system off the coast of eastern Florida to a Tropical Depression at 5:00 PM Saturday. The Air Force sent a Hurricane Hunter aircraft into the storm Saturday afternoon, where it estimated sustained wind gusts up to 30 knots (35 mph). As of 8:00 PM the tropical depression was 175 miles east north east of Melbourne, Florida with a pressure of 1006mb.

The depression brought rain to the Florida peninsula on Saturday and scattered showers into the eastern Big Bend and South Georgia. In Dixie county, Cross city received 0.13 inches of rain. The system will most likely not have any further affect on the Big Bend and South Georgia.

The low pressure system will move off to the northeast along the United States' southeastern coastline over the next several days. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for parts of North Carolina's coast on Monday.

The National Hurricane Center's current forecast suggests that Tropical Depression One will reach sustained wind gusts of at least 39 mph by Sunday afternoon, potentially becoming 2020's first tropical storm.

By: Charles Roop | WCTV Weather
May 16, 2020 - 11:10 a.m.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- A low that the National Hurricane Center has been watching for the last few days still has the potential to become the first named storm of the season.

The weak low, centered to the east of Stuart, Fla. Saturday morning, was becoming better organized based on presentation on satellite imagery. There was some drier air to the south of the low according to water vapor imagery. But with low shear and warm water temperatures in the vicinity, the low has a chance of further development into a tropical or subtropical system as it moves northeastward. The low's center could get close to or stay east of the North Carolina coastline based on ensemble model output.

The impacts of the low to remain well to the east of the Big Bend and South Georgia, but the east coast of Florida will continue to see showers with a few gusts from the low. The bulk of the cloud cover and rain remained north and east of the low's center.

Hurricane Hunters were investigating the low Saturday morning, but haven't found anything of major significance as of this post. Recon did find the low's center off shore of Stuart, Fla. So far, the reconnaissance crew found an extrapolated surface pressure as low as 1005 mb.

The odds for development remained at 80% for the next two to five days, according to the NHC.

By: Charles Roop | WCTV Weather
May 15, 2020 - 11:15 a.m.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- A surface low pressure in the Florida Straits has a high potential of development over the next few days according to the National Hurricane Center.

Friday morning, satellite and radar imagery showed clouds and showers over South Florida and the northwestern Bahamas. The morning surface analysis from the NHC now shows a 1011-mb surface low centered in the Florida Straits, south and east of the cloudiness and showers.

The major global guidance models continue to suggest strengthening as the low moves slowly northeast through the Bahamas this weekend. Regardless of development, some locations in the Florida Keys, Southeast Florida and the Bahamas could see tropical-storm-force wind gusts along with heavy rain.

As of now, there is no threat anticipated for the Big Bend and South Georgia as it's expected to stay east of the viewing area.

The NHC is giving the disturbance a 80% chance of development over the next two days and a 80% chance over the next five days.

This story has been updated to include latest analysis and changes in odds of development.

By: Charles Roop | WCTV Weather
May 13, 2020 - 9:56 a.m.

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. (WCTV) -- Hurricane season doesn't begin until June 1, but there is the potential of some subtropical development around the Bahamas as soon as this weekend.

The National Hurricane Center is expecting a center of low pressure to develop within or north of the Bahamas late this week or this weekend, according to an updated special statement released Wednesday morning.

The American GFS operational and ensemble average is hinting at a weak closed low developing near the Southeast Florida coastline Friday night into Saturday morning, and move northeasterly over time. The European model's operational run does hint at a low, but weaker and more broad in nature developing this weekend.

It is possible that the low would gain subtropical (hybrid tropical and extratropical) characteristics as it moves northeast into the open Atlantic this weekend into next week. As of Wednesday morning, this system is not expected to have an impact on the Big Bend and South Georgia.

The NHC is giving the anticipated low a 70% chance of development over the next five days.

This story has been updated to reflect changes to the odds of development and latest model trends.

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